A P Indy Factor

When it comes to the Kentucky Derby every racing fan have its own theory of tossing horse out of the large Derby field and I am no exception. I came up with this theory a few years ago and I call it the A P Indy factor.

A P Indy factor basically described any A P Indy colts will get over bet at the Derby and the horse becomes an automatic toss out from any Win bets.

It is actually very easy to understand the reasons behind the A P Indy factor.

1. A P Indy offspring usually command high $$ at auction and most public think expensive yearling = good horse.

2. A P Indy is 2 times leading sire of the year and sired more than 110 stakes winner. A P Indy offspring = good horses.

3. A P Indy won the Belmont Stakes and his offspring excel at longer distance. But his offspring are often late maturing.

Let take a closer at how some of the A P Indy colts had fared in the Derby over the last 10 years.

Old Trieste (1998) - won an 1 mile allowance race as the final prep of the Derby and finished 10th of 15th.

Stephen Got Even (1999) - won the Galleryfurniture.com Stakes (Lane's End Stakes) and finished 14th of 19th in the Derby. Stephen Got Even entered the Derby with 1 stakes win but was bet down to single digital odds.

Aptitude (2000) - 3rd in the Wood Memorial and finished 2nd in the Derby. The best finish by any A P Indy offspring.

A.P. Valentine (2001) - 5th in the Blue Glass Stakes and finished 7th of 17th in the Derby. He did come back to finished 2nd in both Preakness and Belmont to Point Given

Atswhatimtalknbout ( 2003) - 900K yearling and finished 4th in the Santa Anita Derby. Atswhatimtalknbout also got bet down to single digital odds and finished 4th of 16th.

Friends Lake (2004) - won the Florida Derby in his final prep before the Derby and finished 15th of 18th.

A P Warrior (2006) - 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby and finished 18th of 20th.

For this year's Derby, there is one horse by A P Indy is pointing toward the derby and that is Adriano. Adriano won the Lane's End in his last start and should be at least 15-1 long shot in the Derby field. I got the the feeling his odds will likely drop down to single digital when the gate open. There is a lot of interest in this hourse after his last workout at Churchill Downs. I will be tossing out Adriano if he gets over bet.

Let see if the A P Indy factor hold true this year.