One of the reason that I love the Kentucky Derby is because of the large field and it often products very high paid out on both exacta and trifecta. My handicapping method is very simple, I start off with the process of elimination and then i work my way to the contenders. For this years Derby, I will start by narrowing down the field to a manageable size of 10. The following is a list of pretenders that I am betting them to finish off the board. If any one of them hit the board, I am screwed.
#8 Mine That Bird (50-1) - I am fairly familiar with Mind that Bird since it was based in Woodbine most of the last year. He won 4 race in a row before sold to an the current owner and he hasn't done much since. His highest beyers of 81 the lowest in the field, a sure bet for last 3 finish.#9 Join in the Dance (50-1) - I am not sure Pletcher wants to run him in the Derby. He had said it in a few different occasion that the owners want to run, enough said.
#18 Nowhere to Hide (50-1) - A last minute replacement when Win Willy withdrew today. I am not sure how a horse can win the Derby with last minute preparation. His last publish work was on April 18. If Zito can pull this off, it will be one of the greatest training feat in the history of Derby.
#10 Regal Ransom (30-1) - I truly believe his UAE Derby win was aided by the speed favor track. With Join in the Dance just inside him, he won't get an easy lead.
#1 West Side Bernie (30-1) - Has the same owner and training connection as Atomic Rain. It ran an huge race in his last start, 101 Beyers for the Wood. The 1 hole will be a big disadvantage and I can see a bounce coming.
#14 Atomic Rain ( 50-1) - It finished 3rd in a N1X 2 start back. His only win was at 5f, no chance.
#5 Hold me Back (15-1) - 1 of 3 Winstar owned horse in the field. He seem to be a synthetic surface specialist, 3-1-0 in 4 lifetime starts. He finished 5th in his lone dirt start and his morning workout is average. His LanesEnd win was impressive and his pedigree is well suited for the Derby distance. I just can't overlook his dirt race from last year, even Atomic rain beat him by 6 length.#4 Advice (30-1) - He ran a new top Beyers in winning the Lexington last out. But even with a 94, he is way too slow in this field and he is most likely to bounce with 2 week rest. He finished 5th in the Sunland Derby from his only dirt start and Mind That Bird was fourth in the same race. No thanks.
#2 Musket Man (20-1) - I hate to toss him but I got to learn from my mistake. His morning workouts has been very average and his pedigree is very questionable. The #2 post will hurt him and he will stay too close to the early pace.
#20 Flying Private (50-1) - One lesson I learned over the years of betting the Derby is I must respect Lukas. But I am not sure he can pull off this mircale. Flying private has 1 win in 10 career starts, he drew the outside post of 20 and his top Beyers of 94 is too slow. I will let him beat me.
No comments:
Post a Comment