Lesson Learned

I started this blog because I want to track my selections so I can brag to my friends after a big win. I also hope to learn from my mistake and avoid picking the same sucker horse over and over again, but it doesn't always work out i.e. Casino Drive.

The 2009 Kentucky Derby is on this Saturday May 2nd. A full field of 20 horse is expected to start in this year's Run for the Roses. I love the Derby and it is one of my favorite race. I had done well over the years but last year Big Brown emptied my pocket and I failed to cash a single ticket. Let see if I got smarter this year or made the same mistake.

Lesson 1. Beware of West Coast Shipper. Just like last year, west coast shipping were winning all over the country before the Derby. In the 2008 Derby, the best finish was 5th place by Colonel John. I should think twice before picking a west coast horse.
Lesson 2. Five week layoff is not too long. Since the Florida Derby was moved to 5 weeks before the Derby, more and more horses are training up to the big race instead of running one more time in between. In the old days, you can never win the Derby with 5 week layoff but not anymore. In fact, 2 of the last 3 winners used the Florida Derby as its final prep.
Lesson 3. Favorite is winning. Before Fusaichi Pegasus won the 2000 Derby, the favorites had lost some 15 or 16 in a row. In fact, the favorite has won 4 of the last 5 Derbies.

Here's my list of contender before tomorrow's post position draw.
1. I want Revenge - The likely favorite for the Derby and everyone top pick after his win in the Wood Memorial. His final workout this morning was a sharp 47 1/5s for the 4f. I like him alot but I hate picking the favorite in the large field. With the withdraw of Quality Road, his odds will be even lower, maybe 2-1 at post time. But I should learn from my Big Brown experience and use him in all my trifecta tickets.

2. Desert Party - One of the 2 Godolphin entry for the Derby. Desert Party has improved a lot this spring since moving to Dubai at the end of last year. His 2nd place finish in the UAE Derby is a very good race consider it was on a speed favor track. He breezed 59 3/5s for his 5f workout on Saturaday, looks like the horse is handling the track. This could be the first Derby winner for Godolphin.

3. Musket Man - I like this horse so much that I actually ask my uncle to buy him before the Tampa Bay Derby. To be honest, I have no idea this horse would run so well. He has outrun his pedigree and there is no way he would get 1 1/4 mile. But all this horse did was winning race after race. From all the workout reports, his last morning work was terrible. This is the horse used to fire off bullet in the morning so his time of 1:01 3/5s is a concern. I will probably use him on the bottom of my exacta.

4. Dunkirk - I am not a big fan of lightly race horse for the Derby but I am a big believer of Beyers. His 108 from the Florida derby is one of the highest in the field. I will be all over him if I can get 6-1 or higher on Saturday.

5. Summer Bird - my long shot of the race and probably every wise guy pick. This closer will benift from a hot pace early from Regal Ranson and Join in the Dance. He maybe another Steppenwolfer or Imperialism that close from way back of the pack.