Breeders' Cup Turf

The European horses are so much better in this years Breeder's Cup Turf, the betting strategies are very simple. I will box all 4 European horse in my exactor and trifactor and hope the longest shot comes in.

#9 Conduit at 6-1 is my first pick in the Turf, it won the St Leger Stakes in his last start and has demonstrated it can get the 1 1/2 mile distance.

#11 Eagle Mountain (6-1) is trained by the world famous Michael de Kock. The turf will be his 2nd race off the long layoff and he should improve off his last win.

#2 Red Rocks (5-1) seems to always run well in North America. I am little worry about his trouble foot.

#4 Soldier of Fortune (7-2) is coming off an excellent third in the Arc. He may just be the best horse in the field.

Breeder's Cup Sprint

I like Cost of Freedom alot but he was scratched this morning by his trainer. The Sprint is a fairly evenly matched race, almost all 8 horses have a chance to capture the top price.

#2 Street Boss (3-1) is sitting on a big race. He has won 5 of 6 coming into the Sprint. His trainer is excellent with sprinter and he handle the synthetic surface very well, 12-7-3-0 on synthetic tracks.

My other choices in the race are #7 In Summation (10-1), #8 Sing Baby Sing (30-1) and #9 Fatal Bullet (6-1). All 3 of them has won recently on synthetic surface and I gave In summation the best chance to upset Street Boss.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

Just like in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf on Friday, I am picking a Euro horse as my first choice. #3 Westphalia (5-1) is making his first start over a mile in the Juvenile Turf but he has won 3 of 6 lifetime starts. Westphalia won his last race coming from off the pace. Judging from the Turf Sprint result, horse coming off the pace will hold a slight advantage in this field.

Being from Canada, I am a little bias in pick #12 Grand Adventure (5-1). The horse ran a spectacular race last out by taking the Summer Stakes and beating Skipadate by a head. Breaking from post 12 will force Bejarano to take him back to save ground in the early going. His powerful late kick would help him pick up the pieces at the end.

I don't see any live longshot in this race, both #10 Skipadate (6-1) and Bittel Road (7-2) are very strong contender.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Looks like i am running out of time, I will quickly go over my selection for the rest of the race.

I really like #11 Midshipman (5-1) in the Juvenile and I would using him on top of my exactor and trifactor tickets.

To complete the bottom of my tickets are #3 Terrain (20-1), #8 Street Hero(6-1) #6 Silent Valor, #12 Bushranger (6-1) and #13 West Side Bernie (20-1).

Street Hero Beat Midshipman last out at the Norfolk and would provide the toughest challenge to my first choice.

Terrain is a closer and the strong early pace will set him up nicely.

Silent Valor also completed in the Norfolk and finished 5th after winning the Sapling in August. I like the rider switch from Gomez to Prado.

Bushranger is the only 2 time group 1 winner in the field, must be respect for his class.

West Side Bernie is undefeated at 2 starts and it comes with good odds.

Breeders' Cup Mile

The Mile used to be the most exciting betting race of the entire Breeders' Cup card, it often produces a blanket finish. But with the addition of Turf sprint and dirt Mile, there are only 11 horse entered for this year's race.

I don't have a top choice in this race and most likely skipping it from a betting standpoint. #4 Goldikova( (3-1) is the stand out in this field but it is hard to bet her when she is 3-1 or lower. She has won 3 in a row and her last 2 are both Group 1. Her 2 lost this years was against the super filly Zarkava. If she can handle the firm group, she is much the best compare to the rest of the field.


#7 U S Ranger (15-1) seem to be a class below Goldikova when comparing their Euro form. But this year's Mile is one of the weakest in years and U S Ranger may just be good enough to take home the top price if Goldikova fails to fire.

#5 Daytona is very consistent and try hard ever time. # 6 Awesome Gem could also be a factor in this weak field.

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

I don't have a particular strong feeling about this race. # 3 Well Armed (3-1) looks like a solid favorite. In my first ever blog of this year World Cup, I picked Well Armed at over 30-1 to finished in the top 3 behind Curlin. Maybe I am a little bias, I just don't see other horse to challenge Well Armed.

Others that look interesting to me are #5 Two Step Salsa (15-1), #1 Lewis Michael (5-1) and #2 Surf Cat (6-1). Two Step Salsa looks like a synthetic surface specialist, 5-4-1-0 lifetime. Lewis Michael has been running all over the place, from 7f to 1 3/16 miles. His best distance seem to be at 1 mile. Surt cat is ultra consistent, 18 top 3 finishs in 22 lifetime start.

In this race, I may only use Well Armed at the top of my Trifactor tickets and throw in #10 Rebellion #7 Albertus Maximus.

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint is a 14 horse scramble and I demand value in this race. #10 California Flag (15-1) jumps out on me while I am looking at the pp. California Flag set the Santa Anita course record in his last race while competing the 6 1/2f in 1:11 flat. The horse have won 2 in row and 3 of last 4, it is coming into the Turf Sprint at top form. His final work of 3f at 34 4/5 s was very sharp. The outside post is a disadvantage and he could get into a speed dual that setup for a closer.

Both Euro import #2 Fleeting Spirit (5-1) and #8 Diabolical (6-1) will be coming off the pace in this race. Fleeting Spirit has only ran in straight races in Europe and the sharp left turn could be adventurous for the talented 3 years old filly. Her best race was the Temple Stakes when she missed the break and won it by coming from behind. Diabolical is slowly coming back into top form after losing 5 in a row during the summer. In his last race, the 5 years old just missed to finish 2nd while beaten by a neck.

My longshot of the race is #7 Rouse the Cat. The former 10k claimer can complete the dream seasom by wining the $1 million Turf sprint.

Breeders' Cup Marathon

Of the three new Breeders' Cup race this year, the Marathon is my favorite. At the 1 1/2 mile distance the horse either gets it or not, pedigree goes a long way in determine if the winner. This year's Marathon only have a small field of 9 horses but there some interesting live longshot..

My choices for this race are #1 Church Service(10-1), #7 Big Booster (9-2), #8 Cedar Mountain(6-1) and longshot #5 Muhannak (20-1).

One thing that I learned from Friday's Breeders' Cup races is that winners of the dirt race are all coming off the pace, Church Service suit that perfectly. Church Service has demonstrated it can get the trip by winning at 1 1/2 mile on turf multiple times. His second place finish earlier this year at the Tokyo City Handicap indicated he can handle the synthetic surface at the same distance. My only concern is his long layoff, his last race was in Aug.

Big Booster is also coming off a long layoff and his last race was the Courgar II Handicap back in July. Big Booster was the odd-on favorite for that race but only finished 3rd behind Zappa. Big Booster has been very consistent on the synthetic surface and has won 2-3 with jockey Bejarano on board. Big Booster and Church Service are both trained by Mike Mitchell who owns a very impressive 24% winning percentage.

It seems like I picked all the horse that coming off a long layoff, Cedar Mountain has not race since July. Cedar Mountain trainer Drysdale is excellent in getting his horse ready after extended time off. The distance is well within Cedar Mountain range as he won at 1 3/4 mile on turf earlier this year. This lightly race 5 years old could surprise is decent odds.

Muhannak is based in England but regularly compete on synthetic surface. This is a major class jump for him but you also get him at long odds.

Breeders' Cup Lady Classic

With a small field of 8 horse entered in this year Lady Classic, all you need to know is Zenyatta (3-5). The undefeated 4 years old Zenyatta is a "monster". She is 8 for 8 lifetime and she had already destroyed most of the field this year. Zenyatta will probably be the 2nd better favorite behind Curlin if she is to run in the Classic on Saturday. The only horse in this field that can run with her is the the synthetic specialist Carriage Trail. Carriage Trail is the unknown in this field and her career best may challenge Zenyatta.

Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf

I will be very happy if I can 4-1 on #8 Halfway To Heaven at post time. Halfway to Heaven has won 3 out of her last 4 race and they are all G1. Unlike most European horse, Halfway to Heaven already won on firm group and She should handle to expected firm going in tomorrow's race.

#3 Forever Together (6-1) has two G1 win this season. She won her last race, the G1 First Lady Stakes easily by 1 1/2 length at 1 mile. Forever Together has never race past 1 1/8 miles and 1 1/4 miles distance of the Filly and Mare Turf is a major concern. Since she is a stone cold closer, she will be way out of it at the beginning. In a relative small field of 10 horse, traffic shouldn't be a problem and a ground saving trip would be key to her victory.

For longshot, I like #6 Dynaforce (6-1) and #10 Pure Clan (15-1). Unlike Forever Together, Dynaforce has ton of stamina and excel in long distance races. If she can avoid a speed dual with Folk Opera at the early going, she may have enough to hold at the end. Pure Clan is a 3 years old that done well on both dirt and turf. She is 4 for 5 on turf and won the American Oak this summer after finishing 3rd in the Kentucky Oak. The firm ground and the 1 1/4 mile should also help her chances.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, I probably should pick a filly from West coast with synthetic surface experience but my instinct tells me # 4 Sky Diva(7-2) could be something special. Sky Diva is undefeated in 2 starts and won the Frizette at Belmont in her last start by 3 3/4 length. Her sire Sky Mesa was undefeated at 2 years old and very brilliantly fast. She had trained well on polytrack but it will be interesting to see how she handle the Pro-ride surface during the race. At post 4, she will avoid all the traffic from 1st turn while enjoy a ground saving trip.

My second choice is the favorite #10 Stardom Bound (2-1). Stardom Bound had won back to back G1 coming into the Juvenile Fillies and she easily won her last race on the Pro-Ride surface at the same distance. Stardom Bound is a closer and her post 10 could get her into trouble in this 13 horse field. If she gets a clean trip, she will be hard to beat.

The rest of the filed are fairly evenly matched. For values, I like #13 Doremifasollatido at 15-1. Her post and the distance could be a disadvantage for her but her last race was awesome.
Another Closer #1 Evita Argentina (15-1) is training well in the morning. She has a big closing kick and she will able to save ground of both turn while breaking from the 1 hole. The stretch out in distance from 7f to 1 1/16 mile will help her chance.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf is one of the 3 new race in this years Breeders' Cup. With a full field of 12 fillies expected to start, this is one of the most evenly match race on the card. With 8 horses at odds of 10-1 or lower, this is an excellent betting race and tons of values.

My first choice is #12 Heart Shaped at 15-1 morning line. Heat shaped is own by the powerful Coolmore connection and based in Ireland. She has only 1 win in 5 lifetime starts. The increase in distance and the firm ground maybe just what her need to break through.

#8 Sugar Mom (10-1) has won her last 3 race impressively but this is her first start on turf. Sugar Mom is by Monarchos and out of the Ascot Knight mare Plenty of Sugar. Plenty of sugar is a multiple stakes winner in Canada and ran her best race on Dirt. Sugar Mom does own an 3 for 3 record synthetic surface it may help her transforms her recent success onto turf. I really like her consistency and her big closing kick is prefect for this race.

To complete my exotic wagers, I also like # 7 Consequence (8-1) and #3 Maram (10-1). Consequence finished 4th in her last start and beaten by Marm for 1/4 length. The Miss Grillo Stakes was only her 2nd career start and she should improve alot from that effort. Maram comes into this race undefeated in 2 starts. At odds 10-1 or high, she is a must use in the exotics.

Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

The first Breeders' Cup race on Friday is the Filly and Mare Sprint. I like the idea of splitting the Breeders' Cup races into 2 days but I hate it for them to start on Friday. Don't they know people do work on Friday and I will most likely to miss all the earlier races on Friday including this one.

The Filly and Mare Sprint race is a 7 furlong race on Dirt and from an earlier report #2 Indyanne may scratch due to fever.


Last year 2 years old champion #5 Indian Blessing is the morning line favorite at 2-1 and also the horse to beat. Indian Blessing had won 3 in a row and is 2 for 2 at seven furlong. The only question is her ability to handle the Pro-Ride surface of the Santa Anita. Her last 3 works at Santa Anita are ok but a lot of people like her final workout on Saturday for 59 1/5 sec at 5f. I really like her chances at 7f, at post 5 she can stalk the pace and draw off while turning for home.

Since I picked Indian Blessing as my first choice, I will have to find a few other horses with value in this big field. #9 Dearest Trickski is my 2nd pick of this race. Dearest Trickski (15-1) is a very fast filly and she owns a 8-6-1-0 record on synthetic surface. Her last race at Del Mar, she set the course record of 6 1/2 furlong in 1:15 flat. Unfortunately she drew post 9 and she runs better when she is on the lead. There are a few horses that inside of her will also be gunning for the lead and it could keep her wide for most of her trip.

The other 2 horses that I like in the race are #6 Zofig(8-1) and #10 Miraculous Miss (20-1). In a race that a load with speed, this 2 closer could make a late run and pick up the pieces if the speed fall apart. Zofig had been off since his monster effort in the Acorn in June when she run a 113 Beyer and beating Indian Blessing by 4 1/2 length. Her health is a question mark but she is training well in recent weeks. Miraculous Miss ran 2nd in this race last year at odds of 43.5-1 and she will be a longshot again this year. Miraculous Miss is winless in last 10 starts and she will be more than 10 length behind in the early part of the race. I don't see Miraculous Miss but she is a must use in all exotics wagers.

I also like #12 Ventura (5-1) but she will most likely be overbet at post time and I prefer values in a 14 horse field.

Breeders' Cup 2008

This year's Breeders' Cup entries was draw yesterday and the number of Breeders' Cup races were increased from 11 to 14 this year. On Friday Oct 24, all 5 Breeders' Cup races are restricted to fillies or mares. On Saturday the 25th, there will be 9 mores exciting races including the $5 million Classic.

In the past years, I would only bet on a couple of the races because it is impossible to pick the winner of every races. This year, I have signed up for the NTRA Breeders' Cup pick all challenge and this contest requires all player to pick a winner for each race. Over the next few days I will be posting my selection of each race and highlighted the one that I have more confident.

Casino Drive

I am a sucker for a well bred horse and there isn't a horse with a better pedigree than Casino Drive in this year Breeder's Cup Classic. Casino Drive is a 3 years old by Horse of the year Mineshaft and out of the 2007 Broodmare of the year Better Than Honour. He is the half-brother of the 2 Belmont Stakes winners (Jazil and Rags to Riches).

Casino Drive is based in Japan and was shipped to US to compete in the Belmont stakes earlier this year. After winner the Peter Pan Stakes as his prep, he injured his foot the night before Belmont and was scratched on race day. His connection shipped him back to Japan after the Belmont and start preparing him for the Breeders' Cup Classic.

I have no idea if this horse is good enough to win the Classic, as Curlin is clearly the horse to beat. Casino Drive was never asked in any of his races, it won all 3 starts with ease. His final prep race at Santa Anita was nothing more than a workout for him but it showed he likes the track. He won it by 3/4 length but was in control from start to finish. Check out the video below

If Casino Drive win this year's Breeders' Cup Classic, his trainer Kazuo Fujisawa deserve all the credit for getting this horse ready. In the history of the Breeders' Cup, I doubt there is another horse with a more unusual schedule before such a big race. He is more than likely to be over bet at the Classic and it is probably wishful thinking in my part to think he can beat Curlin or other more seasoned horses like Tiago and Student Council. But if he can run to his potential and Curlin fails to run his race on the Pro-Ride surface, Casino Drive is going to be very close at the finish.

Big Brown’s retirement

Big Brown’s retirement from Monday shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone in the racing world. The horse did legitimately injury itself, but how much do its connection really want to face Curlin in the Breeders' Cup Classic based on its last 2 wins. Big Brown's didn't beat anyone in the Haskell Invitational and the Monmouth stakes. His last 2 races Beyer figure of 105 and 106 which are well below Curlin's 111 and 112.

A lot of people in the media hype up Big Brown as the super horse, including my favorite writer Steve Haskin but I strongly disagree. Big Brown is a very good horse and probably the best in this 3 years old crop except for Casino Drive. His victory in the Derby was visually impressive but he beat a very weak field. From all the horses that ran in the Derby, none of them had beat older horse and only Colonel John managed to won a G1 after the derby.

If you had read my previous blog, you know how I feel about Big Brown's connection. To sum it, I strongly dislike them. They were classless, and all they want is the spotlight. Now that they got their $60 millions, I hope I never hear from them again.

On the same day that Big Brown retires, the brilliant undefeated Arc winner Zarkava also retired by her own The Age Khan. The 3 years old filly won all 7 of her career starts and is book to Dalakhani, the 2003 Arc winner. In her last race, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe she beat older male easily by 2 length while trailing most for the way. A lot of people of are sad to see Zarkave including myself but there is really nothing left for Zarkava. Unless they plan on running her in the next year Dubai world cup on dirt, she had already done everything in her short career.

Luck is everything

We were home early tonight and I got a few minutes to watch the Woodbine evening race card. Since race 4 was coming up, so I started handicapping the race.

Race 4 is an Maiden Special Weight for filly 3 years old and up.

After a quick look at the racing form, I like #1 Alystar Lady, #2 Chusan, #4 Corbin's Bay and #7 Madame Toumanova.

Alystar Lady - Let just say I have inside information about this horse and it is ready for a big race. Honestly, I didn't see anything from the workout and the 1 hole is no good for first time starter, I normally would have pass but I keep him just in case my source is for real :-).

Chusan - another first time starter. This one is difference than Alystar Lady. I like the work pattern, it has been training since July for this start. Bold Executive is a good first time starter sire and her trainer Reade Baker is red hot lately. I am a little surprise that the horse got off at 21-1 odds.

Corbin's Bay - is the deserving favorite. It just missed in her last race and she own the higest beyer in the field.

Madame Toumanova - showed speed in her last race and just got beat to finish 2nd in her last race. Baker also is the trainer for this one and I thought he had a good chance to be 1-2 in this race.

After being interrupted a few times by my kids, i didn't have time to make the wagers. I would have box all 4 in an exactor and a triactor tickets. I watched the race anyway to see if Alystar Lady will surprise me . As they were turning for home, Alystar Lady was long gone. Chusan and Corbin's Bay were battling each other in deep stretch to a photo finish and I thought Chusan may have won it at the inside. Madame Toumanova hang on to finish 3rd. Just as I was kicking myself for missing another long shot payout, the inquiry sign went on. You can read the chart for the detail of the incident at the stretch. The bottomline is, Chusan was DQ and placed 4th and my would be triactor ticket was gone too.

The race reminds me in horse racing, you need to be good but you also need to be lucky to cash your tickets.

Unbelievable

Sometimes I am so good that I even surprise myself. As I wrote in my blog yesterday, I liked Doctor Dino, Marsh Side, Spice Route and Lucarno in today Canadian International. Guss what, March Side and Spice Route finished 1-2 in the the $2 million race the $2 exactor paid $1062.20.

Unfortunately for me, I didn't place any bet on the race even I correctly picked the 2 long shot finishers.

On paper, the Canadian International is a very weak field. Just by looking at the past performance, March side and Spice Route really jumps out on me. I don''t know if Marsh Side will run next in the Breeder's Cup Turf but I don't think he has a chance against some of the best in Euro.