2009 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

A full field of 12 2 years old are entered of this year Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, a race that favorite the European runners.

Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. Zip Quik Mike Smith Patrick Biancone 50-1
2. Viscount Nelson John Murtagh Aidan O'Brien 6-1
3. Codoy Garrett Gomez Mark Hubley 15-1
4. Pounced Frankie Dettori John Gosden 9-2
5. Gallant Gent Joel Rosario Craig Lewis 30-1
6. Awesome Act Ryan Moore Jeremy Noseda 20-1
7. Bridgetown Robert Landry Kenneth McPeek 8-1
8. King Ledley Rafael Bejarano Darrin Miller 20-1
9. Kera's Kitten Rajiv Maragh Michael Maker 12-1
10. Becky's Kitten Julien Leparoux Wesley Ward 12-1
11. Interactif Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher 4-1
12. Buzzword Ahmed Ajtebi Saeed bid Suroor 6-1

My top pick is the European invader #4 Pounced. Pounced finished 2nd in a group 1 in his last start and beaten only by 1/2 length. He had showed early speed and is prime for mild upset at 4-1. The same jockey and trainer combo also won this race last year.

#12 Buzzword is the most experienced starter with 8 start already this year. He finished 3rd behind Pounced 2 start back and then ran 5th in the G1 Dewhurst stakes. If he can repeat those form, I expected a 1-2 Euro finish in this race.

#5 Gallant Glen is my longshot of the race. Gallant Glen finished 3rd in the Norfolk G1 in his last start over the pro-ride surface and this will be his first try over the turf. Gallant Glen has been very consistent in his 5 starts, he has a record of 3-1-1. Al thought there is very little turf in his pedigree but if he can transform his pro-ride form over to turf. He can surprise with long odds.

The mornign line favorite #11 Interactif is the probably the best 2 years old turf horse in American. I also like the late running #3 Codoy in my exotic wagers.

2009 Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic

Even without Zenyatta, this year's ladies Classic is shaping up to be an excellent race with a strong field.

Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. Careless Jewel Robert Landry Josie Carroll 2-1
2. Life is Sweet Garrett Gomez John Shirreffs 8-1
3. Mushka Kent Desormeaux William Mott 12-1
4. Lethal Heat Alex Solis Barry Abrams 20-1
5. Proviso John Velazquez Robert Frankel 8-1
6. Cocoa Beach Richard Migliore Saeed bin Suroor 8-1
7. Music Note Rajiv Maragh Saeed bin Suroor 9-5
8. Rainbow View Julien Leparoux John Gosden 6-1

#2 Life is Sweet is the forgotten horse in this year's Lady Classic. She has been a disapponitment after winning 3 in a row in Spring this year. She only managed to finish 4th in her last 2 races but both time were beaten by Zenyatta. After taking a closer look at her past performance, I noticed there is alot going for her in this race. Life is Sweet is 2 for 2 at the 1 1/8 M distance, she is also 3 for 4 at Santa Anita. Life is sweet is training well in the morning after her last race. If she can ran back to her Spring form, she will be in the top 3 at the finish.

There is a lot of reasons to like #1 Careless Jewel, she is Canadian own, train and will be ridden by a Canadian jockey. Careless Jewel had won 5 in a row coming into the Lady Classic and is the 2nd best 3 year old filly in North American behind Rachel Alexandra. I am not crazy about the 1 hole and would like to see a better odds than 2-1 in this very competitve field.

I don't understand how #4 Lethal Heat is listed as 20-1 on the ML. Lethal Heat is winless in 7 starts this years but she owns 3 2nd and 3 3rd place finished. She finished 2nd to Zenyatta in her last race and she loves the pro-ride surface. Lethal Heat may not be good enough to win this race, but she is a must use on all exotic wagers.

#7 Music Note is the stronger of the Godolphin entries and is in the best form of her career. She own the best beyers in this field and had won her last 2 with a combine of 7.5 length. If she can handle the pro-ride surface, everyone is running for 2nd money.

2009 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

The defending champ Ventura looks like the horse to beat in this year Filly & Mare Sprint.

Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. Free Flying Soul Mike Smith Bruce Headley 50-1
2. Sara Louise Frankie Dettori Saeed bin Suroor 9-2
3. Game Face Edgar Prado Todd Pletcher 10-1
4. Only Green Olivier Peslier Freddy Head 20-1
5. Silver Swallow Alex Solis Bruce Headley 30-1
6. Evita Argentina Joel Rosario John Sadler 20-1
7. Informed Decision Julian Leparoux Jonathon Sheppard 5-2
8. Seventh Street Rajiv Maragh Saeed bin Suroor 4-1
9. Ventura Garrett Gomez Bobby Frankel 8-5

I hate to go against Ventura, she seem to be the luck of the day. She burned me last year in the Filly & Mare Sprint and then in the Woodbine Mile. A lot of attention will be on the synthetic specialist Informed Decision and the Godolphin duo, but I just don't see how anyone can beat Ventura. She dominated last year's race by defeating Indian Blessing by 4 length, she is 2 for 2 at Santa Anita. The outside post is going help her to save ground early. The only concern is the pace may not be as hot as last year. She will be my single on all tickets.

Top complete the bottom of my Tri tickets, I like #2 Sara Louise, #5 Silver Swallow, #6, Evita Argentina, #7 Informed Decision and #8 Seventh Street.

2009 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

Another even matched field of 12 fillies are set for the Juvenile Fillies.

Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. Zilva Jeremy Rose Graham Motion 30-1
2. Ms Vanenzza J. Rocco, Jr. Juan Vasquez 30-1
3. Blind Luck Tyler Baze Jerry Hollendorfer 3-1
4. Beautician Robby Albarado Ken McPeek 6-1
5. Bickersons Joel Rosario Kelly Breen20-1
6. Connie and Michael Desormeaux Ken McPeek 4-1
7. Devil May Care John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 8-1
8. She be Wild Julien Leparoux Wayne Catalano 8-1
9. Champagne d'Oro Martin Garcia John Daley 50-1
10. Negligee Rajiv Maragh John Terranova II 6-1
11. Always a Priness Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert 6-1
12. Biofuel Eurico Da Silva Reade Baker 15-1

I am not a big fan of handicaping 2 years old races, they can be very unpredictable. This year's Juvenile fillies is no difference, especially most of them are lightly raced. My picks are #8 She be Wild, #10 Negligee, #5 Bickersons and #3 Blind Luck.

She be wild is 1/2 length away from being undefeated in 4 career start. She is proven on the synthetic surface and is very consistent. Her final workout on 10/30 at 5f for 1:00 1/5s was very impressive. I think she will move forward from her last race and at 8-1ML, she is my top choice for this race.

Negliee was the only filly to defeated my top choice She be wild in her last start. She is also proven on the synthetic surface with a 2-1 record in 3 starts. She should be saving group early with the outside post and closing strongly in the stretch. A strong pace will benefit her tomorrow.

Bickersons is my longshot of the race. She had placed in 3 G1 races and is experienced with the pro-ride surface. She been training very well at Santa Anita in the morning and prime for a big effort. At 20-1, she can really light up the tote board.

Blink Luck had done nothing wrong in her 4 race career with a 3-1-0 record. She won her last race the Oak leaf convincingly with 2 1/4 length. She is a must use all all exacta and trifecta tickets.

2009 Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

A evenly matched field of 12 fillies is set to for this year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf. It is not surprised to see the Group/graded stakes winner Lillie Langtry was made the morning line favorite in a relative weak field.


PP Horse Jockey Trainer ML
1 Potostina J. Velazquez Shuman 20-1
2 Elusive Galaxy Bejarano Cecil 12-1
3 Smart Seattle Rose Motion 8-1
4 Rose Catherine Castellano Pletcher 8-1
5 La Nez Smith Kruljac 20-1
6 Jungle Tale Bridgmohan Asmussen 15-1
7 House of Grace Luzzi McPeek 4-1
8 Lillie Langtry Murtagh O'Brien 3-1
9 Hatheer Gracia McLaughlin 10-1
10 Tapitsfly Albarado Romans 8-1
11 Junia Tepzia Fallon Schiergen 8-1
12 Lisa's Kitten Leparoux Marker 12-1


There isn't any standout in this years field and the horses I like are #7 House of Grace, #10 Tapitsfly, #8 Lillie Langtry and #6 Jungle Tale.


House of Grace is lightly raced and she is also unbeaten in 2 career starts. Her running style is prefect for this race as there will be a lot of speed up front. The post 7 will help her save ground in the early going and she will picking up the pieces at the stretch. She is 1 for 1 on turf and she won her other race on the synthetic surface after it got race off the turf. Assuming she can handle the turf course at Santa Anita, she will be very tough to beat.

Tapitsfly is 1 for 1 on turf and finished 2nd in her last race after it was taken off turf. Her last work on the 10/31 at 5f for 1:00 3/5 was very impressive. Her post should help her since most of the speed are inside of her. If she can get the lead at the top of the stretch, she will be hard to beat.

As mentioned earlier, Lillie Langtry is the ONLY group/graded stakes winner in the field. This will be her first try over 7f but this closer should have no problem handle the added distance. If I can close to the 3-1 ML, i will key her in my exacta and trifecta tickets.

For the longshot of the race, I like Woodbine based Jungle Tale. She ran greenly when 2nd in the Natalma, a more professional effort could land her in the top 3.

2009 Breeders' Cup Marathon

The Breeders' Cup Marathon will be the first Breeders Cup race to kickoff the champion weekend at Santa Anita. The distance for this year's Marathon is at 1 3/4M, 1/4M longer than last year when the race was run for the first time.

Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. Black Astor Alex Solis Lisa Lewis 12-1
2. Muhannak Ryan Moore Richard Pegum 12-1
3. Nite Light John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 4-1
4. Cloudy's Knight R. Homeister Jr. Jonathan Sheppard 8-1
5. Father Time Eddie Ahern Henry Cecil 3-1
6. Mastery Frankie Dettori Saeed bin Suroor 9-5
7. Sir Dave Joel Rosario Jack Carava 20-1
8. Eldaafer Rafael Bejarano Diane Alvarado 30-1
9. Man of Iron John Murtagh Aidan P. O'Brien 8-1
10. Gangbuster Kent Desormeaux J. Keith Desormeaux 30-1

When it comes to distance racing, the European hold a big advantage over the American. My top choice is #9 Man of Iron. Man of Iron is a half-brother of 2 Belmont stakes winners (Rag to riches and Jazil) and the Giant's Causeway colt is bred to run all day. Man of Iron had won last 2 of 3 races and all of them are on synthetic surface. The Marathon is a major class jump for him but I think he will be the one that breaks O'Brien 28-race losing streak in the Breeders Cup.

The next 2 horses that I like are the only G1 winner in the field, #6 Mastery and #4 Cloudy's Knight. Mastery won the St Leger stakes in his last race and is most likely the odd-on favorite for the Marathon. The St Leger was run at a similar distance as the Marathon and Mastery should the distance as it also owns a 3rd in the 2M Queen Vase back in June this summer.

Cloudy's Knight is a 9 years old gelding that is making his 3rd starts in the Marathon after a year off. His trainer Sheppard is a master of handle long distance turf horses. Cloudy's Knight won both of his comeback races at the 1 1/2M on turf and his Beyer shows him belong with the top contenders.

My longshot of the race is #8 Eldaafer. If you throw out his last race, he actually hasn't been that bad. He beat Nite Light in the Brooklyn back in June and fast pace should help him. I think he is more effective coming off the pace than being too close up front. At 30-1, he can light up the tote board.

2009 Princess Rooney Handicap

I had been playing the DRF.com Race of the day for the last week and the result is surprisingly positive. I had hit the the Trifacta for both Sunday and Wednesday and I will try my luck at tomorrow's Princess Rooney Handicap.

PP Horse Jockey ML
1 Jessica is Back Lopez 12-1
2 Orinoquia Nunez 20-1
3 Indian Blessing Smith 5-2
4 B R's Girl Santiago 8-1
5 Pious Ashley Bridgmohan 12-1
6 Game Face Prado 3-1
7 Keep the Peace Cruz 6-1
8 Dubai Majesty Theriot 5-1
9 Marina Ballerina Lezcano 6-1

Nine horses entered for the 6F Princess Rooney but only eight will start tomorrow. The morning line favorite Indian Blessing is out and the race is wide open. I will pick 2 key horses for the top of my tri tickets and then find 5 horses to fill out the bottom. This is my favorite tri bet and I had done well over the years.

My 2 key horses are Dubai Majesty and Jessica is Back. Dubai Majesty won the Winning Colors at ChurchChill in her last start and she had ran four 90+ beyers in a row. Dubia Majesty love the 6f distance and she spotted a 4-3-0 record in 8 starts. At post 8, I don't see her getting the lead tomorrow, but she can be in a good stalking position. She had been pointing at this race since her last race back in May 25 and she had been training very well in the morning. She is my top choice.

My 2nd key horse Jessica is Back is a longshot in the field. She ran a career best 99 beyers in her last race while finished 2nd to Marina Ballerina. Marina Ballerina drew the outside post and put her in a major disadvantage. Jessica is Back was claimed 3 starts back for 50k and this will be a major class jump. Her trainier Wolfson has 3 horses in the field and her regular rider Bridgmohan choose to ride stablemate Pious Ashley worries me. But then again, you don't get 12-1 longshot if everything is prefect. I like Jessica is Back's record at Calder, 12-4-4-0. She also spots a 15-3-5-1 record at the distance.

The 2 horses that I will left off my tickets are Orinoquia and B R's Girl. Orinoquia is just too slow against this group and had never ran a 90+ beyers. B R's Girl will be closing from the back but 6f is just too short for her.

2009 United Nations Stakes

The $750,000 United Nations is one of the Breeders' Cup Challenge "Win and You're In" event. The winner of the race will receive an automatic berth into the Nov 7 Breeders' Cup Turf. The 1 3/8 mile race drew a very evenly matched field of nine horses.

PP Horse Jockey ML
1 Banrock Bravo 6-1
2 Strike a Deal Lopez 8-1
3 Brass Hat Elliott 6-1
4 Spice Route Castro 4-1
5 Court Vision Gomez 3-1
6 Lauro Chavez 15-1
7 Presious Passion Trujillo 9-2
8 Wesley Migiore 10-1
9 Better Talk Now Rose 6-1

I am not a big fan of picking Woodbine horses in a US stakes race, but Spice Route is different. Spice Route had won 2 graded stakes races since coming to North America last June and both were in the state. He ran well in Woodbine last summer but he failed to win a stakes race in 3 tries. Spice Route is a closer and I am expecting a strong pace set by Lauro and Presious Passion. Trainer Roger Attifield had been targeting this race since his 2nd place in the Louisville Handicap back in May 23. The horse had been training well in the morning and I expect a big effort from Spice Route tomorrow at odds of 4-1.

Court Vision is my second choice in the race. Court Vision is one of the sucker horse that I seem to bet on every race but I never win a penny. I really like him in the Manhattan but he was no match to Gio Ponti and finished 4th. This is a much easier spot than the Manhattan and switching back to Gomez is a positive. Just like a few others in here, the distance is a big question mark. It will be the first time he travels beyond 1 1/4m and his best distance maybe at 1 1/8m.

Another closer Banrock is my third choice in the race. It is very unusual for a horse to ran a career beyers at age 6 but that what Banrock did in his last start. He had put together 2 good races and he will more up if the turf is a coming up soft.

My longshot of the race is Wesly. He finished a disappointed 8th in the Manhattan, I thought he would fair better. His beyers is low compare to the contenders and he had never won a race beyond 1 1/8m. Training Henning is very hot at Monmouth, hit the board at almost 50%. At odds of 10-1, I will take a chance on Wesly.

2009 Woodbine Oaks

A full field of 14 are entered for tomorrow's 54th running of the Woodbine Oaks. This year renewal of the 1 1/8 mile race at the Woodbine polytrack is evenly matched, I expect good payout on all exotic wagers.

PP Horse Jockey ML

1 Indigo North Pizarro 30-1

2 Politelyprecocious Montpellier 15-1

3 Secret Wish Stein 30-1

4 Milwaukee Appeal Elliott 6-1

5 Soul of Nataka Dos Ramos 30-1

6 First Circle Jones 20-1

7 Wynning Ride Talamo 5-2

8 Koonunga Hill Wilson 20-1

9 High Mist McAleney 12-1

10 Gore Bay Sutherland 15-1

11 Double Malt da Silva 15-1

12 Academicienne Garcia 20-1

13 Tasty Temptation Husbands 7-2

14 Miss Blakely Coa 12-1

The Woodbine Oaks is a very confusing race to handicap, a lot of the horses have weakness or seem over match on paper. For the top spot and somewhat of a safe pick, I like Tasty Temptation. Tasty temptation ran second to G1 winner Hooh why in the La Lorgnette last out and earned a field high 94 Beyers. Her sire Medaglia d'Oro is red hot and his fillies already won this year's Kentucky Oaks and Black Eye Susan. Husband is leading the jockey standing by a large margin and she will most likely be the post time favorite. Tasty Temptation is making her 6th 2 turns start tomorrow and that experience will help her handle the distance.

My Second pick is Miss Blakely, one of the 3 shippers in the field. Miss Blakely has never won on dirt or synthetic surface, her 3 wins are all came on turf. Her sire Smart Strike has had many that run well on all surface and I assume she will handle Woodbine polytrack. Her post is a concern but she does have some early speed which she can be use to place in a good stalking position early. I like the fact that Coa comes in to ride her, she can hit the board with good odds.

High Mist is one of the many in here that can surprise with double digit odds. She is bred to get the trip but her lone try around 2 turns was a 18 length beat down. She finished 2nd in her last start and is working very well in the morning. She has yet to run back to his 2 years old Beyers and it makes you wonder if she have made enough progress for the Oaks. High Mist did improve her Beyer in both of her starts this year and she may rounding in form for her 3rd start of the season.

My longshot of the race, there are actually a couple and I will start with Secret Wish. Secret Wish is trained by 5-time Oaks winner Jim Day and he is carefully preparing Secret wish for this race. Secret Wish made 3 starts this year and she finally break through the 70 Beyers when she rallied to finish 3rd and earned a career best 76. She is bred to run all day and the distance should improve her chances tomorrow.

For a even a bigger longshot, I will include Soul of Nataka in my exotics. Soul of Nataka is still a maiden and just beaten by Gore Bay in her last start. And just like Gore Bay, they are the only 2 fillies that tried this distance. I just can't ignore anything from Attfield stable, especially in a Canadian Classic.

2009 Belmont Stakes

10 horses are entered for this Saturday's 141st running of the Belmont Stakes. We will have to wait another year for a triple crown winner but jockey Calvin Borel is going for his personal Triple on 2 different horses. Borel won the Derby with Mine that Bird and the Preakness with Rachel Alexandra, Mine that Bird is likely to be the odd on favorite at post time.

PP Horse Jockey ML
1 Chocolate Candy Gomez 10-1
2 Dunkirk Velazquez 4-1
3 Mr. Hot Stuff Prado 15-1
4 Summer Bird Desormeaux 12-1
5 Luv Gov Mena 20-1
6 Charitable Man Garcia 3-1
7 Mine that Bird Borel 2-1
8 Flying Private Leparoux 12-1
9 Miner's Escape Lezcano 15-1
10 Brave Victory Maragh 15-1

On paper, Mine that bird should win the Belmont easily. He is bred for the distance and is the only horse in the field to have ran triple digit Beyers twice (106 and 105). Just in case Mine that Bird didn't fire or ran into traffic problem tomorrow, I am taking a chance on Summer Bird for the the top spot.

Just like the favorite Mine that Bird, Summer Bird is also sired by Birdstone and is breded to run all day. He is also a confirmed closer and has a very similar running style of Mine that Bird. A jockey switch to Desormeaux should help and he has been training at Belmont for 2 weeks to prepare for the big race. I have no idea if he is good enough to beat Mine that bird or even Charitable Man, but at 12-1 he is worth taking a shot.

If it continue to rain tomorrow and the track comes up sloppy, I would probably just use Mine that Bird at the top of my trifacta with ALL except Brave Victory. If the track is fast, I would use both Summer Bird and Mine that Bird on the tri. My backup ticket is Charitable Man with All on my exacta ticket.

2009 Plate Trial Stakes

There are 3 more weeks to the June 21 Queen's Plate and tomorrow Plate Trial Stakes will be service as the final prep race for most of the contenders. I am very excited about tomorrow's race, 6 of 10 horses in my Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge stable are running. I am looking forward to pick up some valuable points and move up in the standing.

PP Horse Jockey ML
1 El Brujo Husbands 5-2
2 Rapid Release Jones 12-1
3 Eastern Promise Rose 9-2
4 Active Duty Fraser 10-1
5 Southdale Wilson 7-2
6 Bucephalus Pizarro 15-1
7 Keino West Olguin 30-1
8 Thor's Piper McAleney 12-1
9 Costalivin Sutherland 10-1
10 Eye of the Leopard Da Silva 8-1

The Plate Trial is an extremely difficult race to handicap, 8 of the 10 horse entered have a good chance of claiming top prize.

My top pick of the race is my stable star Southdale. Southdale will make his thrid career start tomorrow and is the 2nd choice in the morning line. The son of Street Cry ran a 89 Beyers in his last race, taken a 7F MSW event.

I am obviously bias toward Southdale but his last race was very impressive. Recently, I was reading the Southdale diary at Triple Dead Heat and I am very confident the horse is well prepare and ready to ran a big race tomorrow.

My 2nd choice in the race is Eye of the Leopard. I would be shocked if I can get anywhere near his 8-1 ML at post time. This Sam-Son farm homebred is also making his 3 career start tomorrow. He ran a big race last time out by wining a MSW at 1 1/16M, I was surprise to see him won it from gate to wire. The added distance will help and a good effort tomorrow will get him prime for the Queen's Plate in 3 weeks.

Thor's Piper is coming back with 2 weeks rest after breaking his maiden at 1 1/16M. Thor's Piper is bred to run all day and his full brother won this race a few years back. He should improve from his last out and at odds 12-1 he is a must use in the exotics.

My longshot of the race is #2 Rapid Release. I am very disappointed at Rapid Release, I thought he would had done much better since moving to Woodbine. His race at Keeneland back in April on turf was a key race but he seem to have trouble handling the Woodbine synthetic surface. The trainer jockey combo won the Plate last year on Not Bourbon and I have a ton of respect for Attfield. I will use him at all my tri tickets.

2009 Preakness Stakes

I barely recovered from the Derby debacle 2 weeks ago but I am ready to take my chances at tomorrow's Preakness Stakes. Preakness is the 2nd leg of the triple crown and this year renewal is especially interesting since the super filly Rachel Alexandra was supplemented to take on the boys. Here's a quick look at the field.

PP Horse Jockey ML
1 Big Drama Velazquez 10-1
2 Mine That Bird Smith 6-1
3 Musket Man Coa 8-1
4 Luv Gov Theriot 50-1
5 Friesan Fire Saez 6-1
6 Terrain Rose 30-1
7 Papa Clem Bejarano 12-1
8 General Quarters Leparoux 20-1
9 Pioneerof the Nile Gomez 5-1
10 Flying Private Garcia 50-1
11 Take The Points Prado 30-1
12 Tone It Down Desormeaux 50-1
13 Rachel Alexandra Borel 8-5

From the early betting at the close of Friday, Rachel Alexandra is the 3-2 odds on favorite. Followed by Pioneerof the Nile and Mine That Bird, both are at 7-1. Rachel Alexandra is a very good filly but I am not as excited as others about her Kentucky Oaks (G1) victory. She didn't beat much in the Oaks, the 2nd place finisher Stone Legacy failed to hit the board in today's Black Eye Susan Stakes (G2). The 20 1/4 margin was impressive but coming back in 2 weeks against colts for the first time at short odds, I can't bet her with confident. I think the 13 post will be a positive for her and I will use her on my backup tickets.

My top pick of the race is Friesan Fire, a horse that I didn't like in the Derby. Friesan Fire was the Derby favorite and a son by AP Indy, that's 2 strikes against him in the Derby. I wasn't surprised by his 18th finish (beaten 42 1/2 length by Mine that Bird) but I think he will redeem himself tomorrow's. The Preakness will be his 2nd start after a 7 weeks layoff and his May 12 5f work of 58 2/5s shows he is ready for a big effort tomorrow. If the track comes up sloppy as rain is in tomorrow forecast, it will only help his chance.

I have to admit, Mine the Bird would be my 19th pick in the 19 horse Derby field. Its victory got to be one of the biggest upset I had seen in my life... unbelievable. But I won't be surprise if he run well tomorrow. His morning works since the Derby has been very consistent and he getting good at the right time. Just like Friesan Fire, if the track comes up sloppy tomorrow he is a must use on all my tickets. He maybe an off-track specialist based on his Derby performance.

Musket Man ran an amazing race in the Derby, and was beaten by a noise for the runner-up spot. He will make his 6th 3 year old start tomorrow and the 2 weeks quick turn around is a big concern. He draw inside again and that will help him to save ground. Jockey Coa will try to get him to stalk Big Drama and I am interested to see if he has enough to hold of the closers. Musket Man is ultra consistent but never seem to get the respect. He will go off higher than 15-1 at post time and it make him more attractive in the wagering.

Papa Clem was one of my pick for the Derby and he finished a respectable 4th. The shorter distance of the Preakness should suit him better. His 2f blowout this morning was very similar to the one he had just before the Derby. I think a fast track will improve his chance for tomorrow, I will watch the weather and bet accordingly.

My longshot of the race is Terrain. I always like Terrain and bet on him in last year Breeders' Cup Juvenile which he finished 4th at 15-1. Terrain is a stone cold closer and it always makes him close but not winning. His Beyers is lower than most of the contenders in the field but he is prime for a big effort in his 3rd start of the year. At 25-1 or higher, I will use him at the bottom of my exacta and trifacta.

Here's how I will wager tomorrow. For sloppy track condition, Friesan Fire and Mine that Bird at top of my tri and Musket Man, Papa Clem , Terrain and Pioneerof the Nile to fill out the bottom of the tickets. For fast track, I will use Friesan Fire and Papa Clem on top for the tri. For my backup tickets, I will use Rachel Alexandra on top of my tri, with FF, MN, PC, Terrain and PN at the bottom.

2009 Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge Update

My selections for this year's races had been terrible, it is so bad that I am afraid to make my selections for this Saturday's Preakness Stakes. When Mine that Bird won the Derby last week, I am not sure if I had lost my touch or the world has just went upside down.

On a positive note, I am doing very well in the 2009 Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge. Currently I am ranked 281 Out Of 4692 but I feel good about my selections. Here's a quick summary of each my pick.

El Brujo

1. El Brujo - My top point getter with 110 points. One of the top contender for the Queen's Plate.
I probably should have pick his trainer Malcolm Pierce in my pool, but you can't go want with Roger Attfield. Plate Trail on May 31st most likely is his next race.

2. Active Duty - Got 30 point for finishing 3rd in the Queenston on May 2nd. He was beaten by El Brujo for less than 3 length. I think the long distance will help him and the Plate Trail is probably next for this 3 year old.

3. Square Eddie - Finish 3rd in the Lexington last out. The connection was pointing to the Derby but common sense kicked it. The horse is being turn out not sure will make the Plate.

4. Don Valentino - Is training regularly at Woodbine but hasn't make his debug. Time is running out.

5. Eye of the Leopard - Won last week MSW with a 74 Beyers at 1 1/6 mile distance. The winning wasn't very fast but this son of A P Indy will love the 1 1/4 mile. Plate Trail or Victoria Park Stakes on June 7 is next.

6. Thor''s Piper - I think this guy finished 4 in Keeneland back in early April. It is back at woodbine but need to break it maiden fast.

7. Southdale - My Stable star that won a 7f MSW a couple of weeks ago by 5 1/2 length and earned a 88 Beyers. One of the top contenders for The Plate and major reason of me feeling good about my picks. The only negative is the horse was transferred back to Ian Black from Attfield. I am losing all my trainer's point. The Trail is next for him.

8. No More Tears - Ran 3rd recently in a MSW, will need to find a spot to break his maiden.

9. Whispered Hope - Owned my Sam Son farm but has yet to make it's Woodbine debut. Ran once at Keeneland in spring by need to break its maiden.

10. Rapid Release - ran twice at Woodbine within a week. It finished 3rd on April 26 in at 1 1/16Mile allowance race. Returned in a week later to finish 5th at the same distance. The Trail is next.

All 10 horses remain eligible after the second payment nomination on May 1st. There is a chance all 10 could start in the Queen's Plate.

2009 Kentucky Derby

It is never easy to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby, as Steve Haskin wrote in his article this week "There are no experts when it comes to the Derby. It humbles even the greatest of analytical minds". I have narrowed my Derby field down to 10 horse after eliminated all the pretenders. I spent last couple of days study each horse and watching replay of each prep races, at the end I came up with a pretty clear picture of what will happen to tomorrow.

My top pick for the Derby is #13 I want Revenge. If you have read my previous post, you know I am not a big fan of it part owner, IEAH. But I had learned my lesson and I will not let that cloud my judgement. I want Revenge is the morning line favorite and I predicted it may get bet down to 2-1. Surprisingly, I want Revenge is 6-1 in the advance on-track wagering . If i can get 5-1 at post time, I will keying him on all my wagers.

I love Dunkirk's post position, the 15th post will allows him to settle down if he breaks slowly tomorrow. His lack of seasoning is well documented, but if Big brown can win the Derby win 3 career start why not him. History is not on his side and he also have to deal with Pletcher's 0-21 streak at the Derby. If I can get 8-1, he is worth taking a shot.

I always like #19 Desert Party. The outside draw is a disadvantage but Big Brown won it with Post 20 last year and Denis of Cork finished 3rd last year from post 16.Desert Party will be overlay at post time with odds close to 20-1 which makes him very attractive for any exotics. If Dominguez can settle him in and not lose too much ground on the first turn, he will be very dangerous. Maybe this will be the year Godolphin win it first Derby

As expected #7 Papa Clem's odds dropping fast after his eye catching 3 furlong blowout of 34s from yesterday. The Arkansas Derby winner had ran 2 good race since moving to dirt track. I am hoping he is not this year's Gayego, which also won the Arkansas Derby last year but only to finish up the track. The inside post will help Papa Clem as he will be close to the pace in the early going, let hope he don't get in a speed dual with Mine that Bird or Join in the Dance.

#6 Friesan Fire is an interesting one. Not only he is currently the favorite at the advance wagering, he is also by A P Indy. That's 2 strikes against him. Friesan Fire ran a big race in the Louisiana Derby and earned a 104 Beyers, which made him a handful of horses that ran a triple digital Beyers. Rain is forecast for tomorrow and Friesan Fire will move way up on an off track.

My longshot special #17 Summer Bird. Just like Dunkirk, Summer Bird only has 3 career starts and made his debug in March this year. I was super impress with his last race and he was gaining on the leading toward the finish line. The 1 1/4M is prefect for him and the outside post will keep him out of trouble in the early going. I don't expect him to win the Derby but I won't surprise is he hit the board at 50-1.

Here's how I am going to bet tomorrow, I will use I want Revenge, Dunkirk and Desert Party on top of my trifacta tickets and add Friesan Fire and Papa Clem and Pioneer of Nile at the bottom of the tickets. I will box PC, Dunkirk, IWR and FF in another tri and exacta ticket. And last, I will put Summer bird at the 3rd spot on my tri tickets with FF, PC, IWR, Dunk DP at the top 2 spot.

2009 Kentucy Derby Pretenders

The field for this years Kentucky Derby is set and as expected a full field of 20 horse are ready to try to make history by winning the Run for the Roses. You can get a free pass performance from DRF.com.

One of the reason that I love the Kentucky Derby is because of the large field and it often products very high paid out on both exacta and trifecta. My handicapping method is very simple, I start off with the process of elimination and then i work my way to the contenders. For this years Derby, I will start by narrowing down the field to a manageable size of 10. The following is a list of pretenders that I am betting them to finish off the board. If any one of them hit the board, I am screwed.

#8 Mine That Bird (50-1) - I am fairly familiar with Mind that Bird since it was based in Woodbine most of the last year. He won 4 race in a row before sold to an the current owner and he hasn't done much since. His highest beyers of 81 the lowest in the field, a sure bet for last 3 finish.

#9 Join in the Dance (50-1) - I am not sure Pletcher wants to run him in the Derby. He had said it in a few different occasion that the owners want to run, enough said.

#18 Nowhere to Hide (50-1) - A last minute replacement when Win Willy withdrew today. I am not sure how a horse can win the Derby with last minute preparation. His last publish work was on April 18. If Zito can pull this off, it will be one of the greatest training feat in the history of Derby.

#10 Regal Ransom (30-1) - I truly believe his UAE Derby win was aided by the speed favor track. With Join in the Dance just inside him, he won't get an easy lead.

#1 West Side Bernie (30-1) - Has the same owner and training connection as Atomic Rain. It ran an huge race in his last start, 101 Beyers for the Wood. The 1 hole will be a big disadvantage and I can see a bounce coming.

#14 Atomic Rain ( 50-1) - It finished 3rd in a N1X 2 start back. His only win was at 5f, no chance.

#5 Hold me Back (15-1) - 1 of 3 Winstar owned horse in the field. He seem to be a synthetic surface specialist, 3-1-0 in 4 lifetime starts. He finished 5th in his lone dirt start and his morning workout is average. His LanesEnd win was impressive and his pedigree is well suited for the Derby distance. I just can't overlook his dirt race from last year, even Atomic rain beat him by 6 length.

#4 Advice (30-1) - He ran a new top Beyers in winning the Lexington last out. But even with a 94, he is way too slow in this field and he is most likely to bounce with 2 week rest. He finished 5th in the Sunland Derby from his only dirt start and Mind That Bird was fourth in the same race. No thanks.

#2 Musket Man (20-1) - I hate to toss him but I got to learn from my mistake. His morning workouts has been very average and his pedigree is very questionable. The #2 post will hurt him and he will stay too close to the early pace.

#20 Flying Private (50-1) - One lesson I learned over the years of betting the Derby is I must respect Lukas. But I am not sure he can pull off this mircale. Flying private has 1 win in 10 career starts, he drew the outside post of 20 and his top Beyers of 94 is too slow. I will let him beat me.

Lesson Learned

I started this blog because I want to track my selections so I can brag to my friends after a big win. I also hope to learn from my mistake and avoid picking the same sucker horse over and over again, but it doesn't always work out i.e. Casino Drive.

The 2009 Kentucky Derby is on this Saturday May 2nd. A full field of 20 horse is expected to start in this year's Run for the Roses. I love the Derby and it is one of my favorite race. I had done well over the years but last year Big Brown emptied my pocket and I failed to cash a single ticket. Let see if I got smarter this year or made the same mistake.

Lesson 1. Beware of West Coast Shipper. Just like last year, west coast shipping were winning all over the country before the Derby. In the 2008 Derby, the best finish was 5th place by Colonel John. I should think twice before picking a west coast horse.
Lesson 2. Five week layoff is not too long. Since the Florida Derby was moved to 5 weeks before the Derby, more and more horses are training up to the big race instead of running one more time in between. In the old days, you can never win the Derby with 5 week layoff but not anymore. In fact, 2 of the last 3 winners used the Florida Derby as its final prep.
Lesson 3. Favorite is winning. Before Fusaichi Pegasus won the 2000 Derby, the favorites had lost some 15 or 16 in a row. In fact, the favorite has won 4 of the last 5 Derbies.

Here's my list of contender before tomorrow's post position draw.
1. I want Revenge - The likely favorite for the Derby and everyone top pick after his win in the Wood Memorial. His final workout this morning was a sharp 47 1/5s for the 4f. I like him alot but I hate picking the favorite in the large field. With the withdraw of Quality Road, his odds will be even lower, maybe 2-1 at post time. But I should learn from my Big Brown experience and use him in all my trifecta tickets.

2. Desert Party - One of the 2 Godolphin entry for the Derby. Desert Party has improved a lot this spring since moving to Dubai at the end of last year. His 2nd place finish in the UAE Derby is a very good race consider it was on a speed favor track. He breezed 59 3/5s for his 5f workout on Saturaday, looks like the horse is handling the track. This could be the first Derby winner for Godolphin.

3. Musket Man - I like this horse so much that I actually ask my uncle to buy him before the Tampa Bay Derby. To be honest, I have no idea this horse would run so well. He has outrun his pedigree and there is no way he would get 1 1/4 mile. But all this horse did was winning race after race. From all the workout reports, his last morning work was terrible. This is the horse used to fire off bullet in the morning so his time of 1:01 3/5s is a concern. I will probably use him on the bottom of my exacta.

4. Dunkirk - I am not a big fan of lightly race horse for the Derby but I am a big believer of Beyers. His 108 from the Florida derby is one of the highest in the field. I will be all over him if I can get 6-1 or higher on Saturday.

5. Summer Bird - my long shot of the race and probably every wise guy pick. This closer will benift from a hot pace early from Regal Ranson and Join in the Dance. He maybe another Steppenwolfer or Imperialism that close from way back of the pack.

Lexington Stakes

This Saturday's Coolmore Lexington Stakes is the last chance for any horse trying to make it to this year Kentucky Derby. With only 2 weeks remaining to the May 2 Derby, I am not looking for any major Derby contenders coming from this race. The last horse that I can remember did anything from the Lexington was Proud Citizen's 2nd place finish in the 2002 Derby as a long shot.

PP Horse Jockey ML

1 Jeranimo Blanc 12-1
2 Omniscient Albarado 6-1
3 Pitched Perfectly Garcia 15-1
4 Brave Victory Velazquez 8-1
5 His Greatness Douglas 20-1
6 Masala Coa 6-1
7 Conservative Desormeaux 15-1
8 Square Eddie Prado 9-5
9 El Crespo Castellano 10-1
10 Parade Clown Leparoux 15-1
11 Advice Gomez 10-1
12 Hull Mena 12-1

This year's Lexington is an excellent betting race, the morning line favorite Square Eddie is being rush back from injury to make it to the Derby. In a large field of 12, it is wild open and I am thinking upset.

My top pick is #2 Omniscient at 6-1. Omniscient is 2-1-0 in 3 lifetime start, it improved its Beyers in every outing. His stalking running style and the inside post is prefect for Keeneland. This will be a big step up in class from N1X and his first try on polytrack. If I can get 5-1 on Omniscient, I will use it on top of my trifecta tickets. If not, I will just box it with others.

The 2 son's of Lion Heart are my next 2 choice, Masala (6-1) and Brave Victory (8-1). Masala ran a 89+ Beyers in it last 3 races(89,95 and 92) and that made him very competitive in this race. Masala ran into traffic in the Gotham, it made a move in the final turn but tired out in the stretch. Jockey Coa won the Blue Glass Stakes last Sat and he could double up with Masala on this Sat. Brave Victory ran an excellent 4th in the Swale last out. The Gulfstream track was favoring front running that day which didn't leave Brave Victory with much of a chance. If there is a hot pace setup by Pitched Perfectly and Hull, it will set him up nicely for a late run. Brave Victory represents the last chance for Nick Ztio to make it to this year's Derby and he may just pull off the upset.

My long shot of the race is #10 Parade Clown (15-1). On paper the horse is slightly over matched but i like it consistence (1-2-0 in 4 start this year). Parade Clown had ran 6 times on polytrack and is doing well at Keeneland based on the morning workout. I also like the jockey switch to the red hot Leparoux who is winning at 29% at this meet. Another horse that I will use on my trifecta is #1 Jeranimo (12-1). California shippers are winning all over the country last weekend. Jeranimo only lost to Pioneerof the Nile by 2 1/4 length in the San Felipe. If he ran back to his last race, he will be very dangerous.

2009 Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge

The 2009 Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge kick off it's first major Prep Race tomorrow in the 6F Achievement stakes. As a fan of the Queen's Plate, I am also a big fan of this contest. I have won a few prizes over the year and last year I finished 29th out of 4473. This year's race is wild open, I am leaning toward some new comers to shine in this year big race.
When it comes to picking my stable for the Fantasy Challenge, I follow a few rules that I learned over the years.
1. Pick a horse that is in training - a lot of the horses on the list could out of training, knowing a horse is sound and in training will help you get points.
2. Pick horses that can get you early points in the prep race. I always check the entries of the Achievement Stakes before making my selection. Although winning of the Achievement doesn't necessary translate into Queen's Plate victory but you can rack up valuable points early and avoid falling behind out of the gate.
3. Pick a dominate filly -I can't find on this year but over the years a good filly can get you a lot of point from the Oaks and sometimes even at the Plates list Ginger Brew from last year.
4. Pick a jockey/training with a lot of eligible horses - more horses equal more chance for points.

Here's my stable for this year challenge

Horse 1 El Brujo
Horse 2 Active Duty
Horse 3 Square Eddie
Horse 4 Don Valentino
Horse 5 Eye of the Leopard
Horse 6 Thor''s Piper
Horse 7 Southdale*
Horse 8 No More Tears
Horse 9 Whispered Hope
Horse 10 Rapid Release
Jockey (Group 1) Patrick Husbands
Jockey (Group 2) Tyler Pizarro
Jockey (Group 3) Steve Bahen
Trainer (Group 1) Roger Attfield
Trainer (Group 2) Nick Gonzalez
Trainer (Group 3) Jim Day
*stable star

I picked Southdale as my stable star is somewhat of a longshot. The horse ran 3rd in Keeneland over 7f last week as the fav in his career debug. I am hoping it can improve over that race be a factor at the Plate. It is a very risky pick as the horse has yet to break its maiden.

Dubai Word Cup 2009

Unlike last year's Word Cup race, horse of the year Curlin was an easy pick and it went on to rout the field by 8 1/2 length. This year's renewal of Dubai World Cup is a wild open even and a full field o f 14 horses will line up at the starting gate.

Here's a quick look at the pp of each horse and its jockey.
1. Muhannak, Moore
2. Arson Squad, Prado
3. Snaafy, Hills
4. Asiatic Boy, Murtagh
5. Happy Boy, Ajtebi
6. Gloria de Campeao, Leme
7. Well Armed, Gryder
8. Casino Drive, Ando
9. Joe Louis, Ramos
10. Albertus Maximus, Garcia
11. Muller, Marwing
12. Anak Nakal, Bravo
13. Paris Perfect, Faydherbe
14. My Indy, Dettori

Since there is no standout in the field, I will start by eliminate horses that I think has no chance. I loved Muhannak in the Breeders' cup Marathon but this is not a G1 horse. His last 2 race proved he is a cut below G2 competition. Arson Squad ran 4th in the Donn Handicap, beaten 5 1/2 length by Albertus Maximus. I don't see him improve while stretching out to 1 1/4 mile. Gloria de Campeao already beaten twice by My Indy and others in the field, not likely to turn the table. Well Armed was my long shot pick last year and his 3rd place finish helped me cashed in a nice trifecta ticket. This year Well Armed is coming into this race with an off form, I will pass. Joe Louis, Muller and Paris Pefect are unknown to me and they ran mostly in Saudi Arabia since 2008. Of the 3, like Muller the best. His jockey Marwing is a big race jockey and he could suprise. Anak Nakal is a multiple G2 winner in US but it has never come close in a G1 race.

Albertus Maximus is in excellent form, it has won 3 of last 4 race and ran a 100+ Beyers in each race. AM will most likely be the favorite at post time and I prefer others with better value. I may use him on some of my backup tickets.


I am a big fan of Casino Drive. I don't think the horse handle the pro-ride surface in Santa Anita. In his last race, he finished 2nd in the G1 February Stakes at 1 mile beaten by a neck was an excellent prep race for him. Since rain is expected on Saturday, his chance will increase on an off track. I also read on the Internet that alot of money are being bet on Casino drive in the betting shops in England, maybe a sign of good things to come. Casino drive is my top pick and must use in all exacta and trifecta tickets.


Asiatic Boy ran 2nd last year and is coming into this year race with a win at the R3 Maktoum Challenge (G2). This is an very interesting horse, it only ran 3 times last year and it seems always peak at the World cup card. He is most likely to be the 2nd favorite at post time.

Happy Boy are very similar to Asiatic Boy. It is very lightly race, 18 starts at age 6, South American born and always peak at the world cup. Happy Boy finished 2nd is its last 2 race and could hang on for a show spot.

My Indy won its last 2 but has been off since Feb 5. 8 weeks layoff is a concern but the horse showed he runs well fresh. Godolphin only entry and with Dettori as the rider, it shouldn't be a surprise if it pull off the upset.

Snaffy is my long shot for the race. He is 3 for 3 at Nad Al Sheba but the distance is a major concern. He never won beyond a mile and his sire is the famous miler Kingmambo. Snaffy is a closer and if Hill can save ground early, it can be dangerous.

Here's what I will bet. Casino Drive on top of the trifecta tickets with Snaffy, My Indy, Asiatic Boy and Happy boy and Muller. Trifecta box with CD, Snaffy, MI, AB. Exacta Box with AM, CD, AB and MI.