2009 Kentucy Derby Pretenders

The field for this years Kentucky Derby is set and as expected a full field of 20 horse are ready to try to make history by winning the Run for the Roses. You can get a free pass performance from DRF.com.

One of the reason that I love the Kentucky Derby is because of the large field and it often products very high paid out on both exacta and trifecta. My handicapping method is very simple, I start off with the process of elimination and then i work my way to the contenders. For this years Derby, I will start by narrowing down the field to a manageable size of 10. The following is a list of pretenders that I am betting them to finish off the board. If any one of them hit the board, I am screwed.

#8 Mine That Bird (50-1) - I am fairly familiar with Mind that Bird since it was based in Woodbine most of the last year. He won 4 race in a row before sold to an the current owner and he hasn't done much since. His highest beyers of 81 the lowest in the field, a sure bet for last 3 finish.

#9 Join in the Dance (50-1) - I am not sure Pletcher wants to run him in the Derby. He had said it in a few different occasion that the owners want to run, enough said.

#18 Nowhere to Hide (50-1) - A last minute replacement when Win Willy withdrew today. I am not sure how a horse can win the Derby with last minute preparation. His last publish work was on April 18. If Zito can pull this off, it will be one of the greatest training feat in the history of Derby.

#10 Regal Ransom (30-1) - I truly believe his UAE Derby win was aided by the speed favor track. With Join in the Dance just inside him, he won't get an easy lead.

#1 West Side Bernie (30-1) - Has the same owner and training connection as Atomic Rain. It ran an huge race in his last start, 101 Beyers for the Wood. The 1 hole will be a big disadvantage and I can see a bounce coming.

#14 Atomic Rain ( 50-1) - It finished 3rd in a N1X 2 start back. His only win was at 5f, no chance.

#5 Hold me Back (15-1) - 1 of 3 Winstar owned horse in the field. He seem to be a synthetic surface specialist, 3-1-0 in 4 lifetime starts. He finished 5th in his lone dirt start and his morning workout is average. His LanesEnd win was impressive and his pedigree is well suited for the Derby distance. I just can't overlook his dirt race from last year, even Atomic rain beat him by 6 length.

#4 Advice (30-1) - He ran a new top Beyers in winning the Lexington last out. But even with a 94, he is way too slow in this field and he is most likely to bounce with 2 week rest. He finished 5th in the Sunland Derby from his only dirt start and Mind That Bird was fourth in the same race. No thanks.

#2 Musket Man (20-1) - I hate to toss him but I got to learn from my mistake. His morning workouts has been very average and his pedigree is very questionable. The #2 post will hurt him and he will stay too close to the early pace.

#20 Flying Private (50-1) - One lesson I learned over the years of betting the Derby is I must respect Lukas. But I am not sure he can pull off this mircale. Flying private has 1 win in 10 career starts, he drew the outside post of 20 and his top Beyers of 94 is too slow. I will let him beat me.

Lesson Learned

I started this blog because I want to track my selections so I can brag to my friends after a big win. I also hope to learn from my mistake and avoid picking the same sucker horse over and over again, but it doesn't always work out i.e. Casino Drive.

The 2009 Kentucky Derby is on this Saturday May 2nd. A full field of 20 horse is expected to start in this year's Run for the Roses. I love the Derby and it is one of my favorite race. I had done well over the years but last year Big Brown emptied my pocket and I failed to cash a single ticket. Let see if I got smarter this year or made the same mistake.

Lesson 1. Beware of West Coast Shipper. Just like last year, west coast shipping were winning all over the country before the Derby. In the 2008 Derby, the best finish was 5th place by Colonel John. I should think twice before picking a west coast horse.
Lesson 2. Five week layoff is not too long. Since the Florida Derby was moved to 5 weeks before the Derby, more and more horses are training up to the big race instead of running one more time in between. In the old days, you can never win the Derby with 5 week layoff but not anymore. In fact, 2 of the last 3 winners used the Florida Derby as its final prep.
Lesson 3. Favorite is winning. Before Fusaichi Pegasus won the 2000 Derby, the favorites had lost some 15 or 16 in a row. In fact, the favorite has won 4 of the last 5 Derbies.

Here's my list of contender before tomorrow's post position draw.
1. I want Revenge - The likely favorite for the Derby and everyone top pick after his win in the Wood Memorial. His final workout this morning was a sharp 47 1/5s for the 4f. I like him alot but I hate picking the favorite in the large field. With the withdraw of Quality Road, his odds will be even lower, maybe 2-1 at post time. But I should learn from my Big Brown experience and use him in all my trifecta tickets.

2. Desert Party - One of the 2 Godolphin entry for the Derby. Desert Party has improved a lot this spring since moving to Dubai at the end of last year. His 2nd place finish in the UAE Derby is a very good race consider it was on a speed favor track. He breezed 59 3/5s for his 5f workout on Saturaday, looks like the horse is handling the track. This could be the first Derby winner for Godolphin.

3. Musket Man - I like this horse so much that I actually ask my uncle to buy him before the Tampa Bay Derby. To be honest, I have no idea this horse would run so well. He has outrun his pedigree and there is no way he would get 1 1/4 mile. But all this horse did was winning race after race. From all the workout reports, his last morning work was terrible. This is the horse used to fire off bullet in the morning so his time of 1:01 3/5s is a concern. I will probably use him on the bottom of my exacta.

4. Dunkirk - I am not a big fan of lightly race horse for the Derby but I am a big believer of Beyers. His 108 from the Florida derby is one of the highest in the field. I will be all over him if I can get 6-1 or higher on Saturday.

5. Summer Bird - my long shot of the race and probably every wise guy pick. This closer will benift from a hot pace early from Regal Ranson and Join in the Dance. He maybe another Steppenwolfer or Imperialism that close from way back of the pack.

Lexington Stakes

This Saturday's Coolmore Lexington Stakes is the last chance for any horse trying to make it to this year Kentucky Derby. With only 2 weeks remaining to the May 2 Derby, I am not looking for any major Derby contenders coming from this race. The last horse that I can remember did anything from the Lexington was Proud Citizen's 2nd place finish in the 2002 Derby as a long shot.

PP Horse Jockey ML

1 Jeranimo Blanc 12-1
2 Omniscient Albarado 6-1
3 Pitched Perfectly Garcia 15-1
4 Brave Victory Velazquez 8-1
5 His Greatness Douglas 20-1
6 Masala Coa 6-1
7 Conservative Desormeaux 15-1
8 Square Eddie Prado 9-5
9 El Crespo Castellano 10-1
10 Parade Clown Leparoux 15-1
11 Advice Gomez 10-1
12 Hull Mena 12-1

This year's Lexington is an excellent betting race, the morning line favorite Square Eddie is being rush back from injury to make it to the Derby. In a large field of 12, it is wild open and I am thinking upset.

My top pick is #2 Omniscient at 6-1. Omniscient is 2-1-0 in 3 lifetime start, it improved its Beyers in every outing. His stalking running style and the inside post is prefect for Keeneland. This will be a big step up in class from N1X and his first try on polytrack. If I can get 5-1 on Omniscient, I will use it on top of my trifecta tickets. If not, I will just box it with others.

The 2 son's of Lion Heart are my next 2 choice, Masala (6-1) and Brave Victory (8-1). Masala ran a 89+ Beyers in it last 3 races(89,95 and 92) and that made him very competitive in this race. Masala ran into traffic in the Gotham, it made a move in the final turn but tired out in the stretch. Jockey Coa won the Blue Glass Stakes last Sat and he could double up with Masala on this Sat. Brave Victory ran an excellent 4th in the Swale last out. The Gulfstream track was favoring front running that day which didn't leave Brave Victory with much of a chance. If there is a hot pace setup by Pitched Perfectly and Hull, it will set him up nicely for a late run. Brave Victory represents the last chance for Nick Ztio to make it to this year's Derby and he may just pull off the upset.

My long shot of the race is #10 Parade Clown (15-1). On paper the horse is slightly over matched but i like it consistence (1-2-0 in 4 start this year). Parade Clown had ran 6 times on polytrack and is doing well at Keeneland based on the morning workout. I also like the jockey switch to the red hot Leparoux who is winning at 29% at this meet. Another horse that I will use on my trifecta is #1 Jeranimo (12-1). California shippers are winning all over the country last weekend. Jeranimo only lost to Pioneerof the Nile by 2 1/4 length in the San Felipe. If he ran back to his last race, he will be very dangerous.

2009 Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge

The 2009 Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge kick off it's first major Prep Race tomorrow in the 6F Achievement stakes. As a fan of the Queen's Plate, I am also a big fan of this contest. I have won a few prizes over the year and last year I finished 29th out of 4473. This year's race is wild open, I am leaning toward some new comers to shine in this year big race.
When it comes to picking my stable for the Fantasy Challenge, I follow a few rules that I learned over the years.
1. Pick a horse that is in training - a lot of the horses on the list could out of training, knowing a horse is sound and in training will help you get points.
2. Pick horses that can get you early points in the prep race. I always check the entries of the Achievement Stakes before making my selection. Although winning of the Achievement doesn't necessary translate into Queen's Plate victory but you can rack up valuable points early and avoid falling behind out of the gate.
3. Pick a dominate filly -I can't find on this year but over the years a good filly can get you a lot of point from the Oaks and sometimes even at the Plates list Ginger Brew from last year.
4. Pick a jockey/training with a lot of eligible horses - more horses equal more chance for points.

Here's my stable for this year challenge

Horse 1 El Brujo
Horse 2 Active Duty
Horse 3 Square Eddie
Horse 4 Don Valentino
Horse 5 Eye of the Leopard
Horse 6 Thor''s Piper
Horse 7 Southdale*
Horse 8 No More Tears
Horse 9 Whispered Hope
Horse 10 Rapid Release
Jockey (Group 1) Patrick Husbands
Jockey (Group 2) Tyler Pizarro
Jockey (Group 3) Steve Bahen
Trainer (Group 1) Roger Attfield
Trainer (Group 2) Nick Gonzalez
Trainer (Group 3) Jim Day
*stable star

I picked Southdale as my stable star is somewhat of a longshot. The horse ran 3rd in Keeneland over 7f last week as the fav in his career debug. I am hoping it can improve over that race be a factor at the Plate. It is a very risky pick as the horse has yet to break its maiden.