2009 Plate Trial Stakes

There are 3 more weeks to the June 21 Queen's Plate and tomorrow Plate Trial Stakes will be service as the final prep race for most of the contenders. I am very excited about tomorrow's race, 6 of 10 horses in my Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge stable are running. I am looking forward to pick up some valuable points and move up in the standing.

PP Horse Jockey ML
1 El Brujo Husbands 5-2
2 Rapid Release Jones 12-1
3 Eastern Promise Rose 9-2
4 Active Duty Fraser 10-1
5 Southdale Wilson 7-2
6 Bucephalus Pizarro 15-1
7 Keino West Olguin 30-1
8 Thor's Piper McAleney 12-1
9 Costalivin Sutherland 10-1
10 Eye of the Leopard Da Silva 8-1

The Plate Trial is an extremely difficult race to handicap, 8 of the 10 horse entered have a good chance of claiming top prize.

My top pick of the race is my stable star Southdale. Southdale will make his thrid career start tomorrow and is the 2nd choice in the morning line. The son of Street Cry ran a 89 Beyers in his last race, taken a 7F MSW event.

I am obviously bias toward Southdale but his last race was very impressive. Recently, I was reading the Southdale diary at Triple Dead Heat and I am very confident the horse is well prepare and ready to ran a big race tomorrow.

My 2nd choice in the race is Eye of the Leopard. I would be shocked if I can get anywhere near his 8-1 ML at post time. This Sam-Son farm homebred is also making his 3 career start tomorrow. He ran a big race last time out by wining a MSW at 1 1/16M, I was surprise to see him won it from gate to wire. The added distance will help and a good effort tomorrow will get him prime for the Queen's Plate in 3 weeks.

Thor's Piper is coming back with 2 weeks rest after breaking his maiden at 1 1/16M. Thor's Piper is bred to run all day and his full brother won this race a few years back. He should improve from his last out and at odds 12-1 he is a must use in the exotics.

My longshot of the race is #2 Rapid Release. I am very disappointed at Rapid Release, I thought he would had done much better since moving to Woodbine. His race at Keeneland back in April on turf was a key race but he seem to have trouble handling the Woodbine synthetic surface. The trainer jockey combo won the Plate last year on Not Bourbon and I have a ton of respect for Attfield. I will use him at all my tri tickets.

2009 Preakness Stakes

I barely recovered from the Derby debacle 2 weeks ago but I am ready to take my chances at tomorrow's Preakness Stakes. Preakness is the 2nd leg of the triple crown and this year renewal is especially interesting since the super filly Rachel Alexandra was supplemented to take on the boys. Here's a quick look at the field.

PP Horse Jockey ML
1 Big Drama Velazquez 10-1
2 Mine That Bird Smith 6-1
3 Musket Man Coa 8-1
4 Luv Gov Theriot 50-1
5 Friesan Fire Saez 6-1
6 Terrain Rose 30-1
7 Papa Clem Bejarano 12-1
8 General Quarters Leparoux 20-1
9 Pioneerof the Nile Gomez 5-1
10 Flying Private Garcia 50-1
11 Take The Points Prado 30-1
12 Tone It Down Desormeaux 50-1
13 Rachel Alexandra Borel 8-5

From the early betting at the close of Friday, Rachel Alexandra is the 3-2 odds on favorite. Followed by Pioneerof the Nile and Mine That Bird, both are at 7-1. Rachel Alexandra is a very good filly but I am not as excited as others about her Kentucky Oaks (G1) victory. She didn't beat much in the Oaks, the 2nd place finisher Stone Legacy failed to hit the board in today's Black Eye Susan Stakes (G2). The 20 1/4 margin was impressive but coming back in 2 weeks against colts for the first time at short odds, I can't bet her with confident. I think the 13 post will be a positive for her and I will use her on my backup tickets.

My top pick of the race is Friesan Fire, a horse that I didn't like in the Derby. Friesan Fire was the Derby favorite and a son by AP Indy, that's 2 strikes against him in the Derby. I wasn't surprised by his 18th finish (beaten 42 1/2 length by Mine that Bird) but I think he will redeem himself tomorrow's. The Preakness will be his 2nd start after a 7 weeks layoff and his May 12 5f work of 58 2/5s shows he is ready for a big effort tomorrow. If the track comes up sloppy as rain is in tomorrow forecast, it will only help his chance.

I have to admit, Mine the Bird would be my 19th pick in the 19 horse Derby field. Its victory got to be one of the biggest upset I had seen in my life... unbelievable. But I won't be surprise if he run well tomorrow. His morning works since the Derby has been very consistent and he getting good at the right time. Just like Friesan Fire, if the track comes up sloppy tomorrow he is a must use on all my tickets. He maybe an off-track specialist based on his Derby performance.

Musket Man ran an amazing race in the Derby, and was beaten by a noise for the runner-up spot. He will make his 6th 3 year old start tomorrow and the 2 weeks quick turn around is a big concern. He draw inside again and that will help him to save ground. Jockey Coa will try to get him to stalk Big Drama and I am interested to see if he has enough to hold of the closers. Musket Man is ultra consistent but never seem to get the respect. He will go off higher than 15-1 at post time and it make him more attractive in the wagering.

Papa Clem was one of my pick for the Derby and he finished a respectable 4th. The shorter distance of the Preakness should suit him better. His 2f blowout this morning was very similar to the one he had just before the Derby. I think a fast track will improve his chance for tomorrow, I will watch the weather and bet accordingly.

My longshot of the race is Terrain. I always like Terrain and bet on him in last year Breeders' Cup Juvenile which he finished 4th at 15-1. Terrain is a stone cold closer and it always makes him close but not winning. His Beyers is lower than most of the contenders in the field but he is prime for a big effort in his 3rd start of the year. At 25-1 or higher, I will use him at the bottom of my exacta and trifacta.

Here's how I will wager tomorrow. For sloppy track condition, Friesan Fire and Mine that Bird at top of my tri and Musket Man, Papa Clem , Terrain and Pioneerof the Nile to fill out the bottom of the tickets. For fast track, I will use Friesan Fire and Papa Clem on top for the tri. For my backup tickets, I will use Rachel Alexandra on top of my tri, with FF, MN, PC, Terrain and PN at the bottom.

2009 Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge Update

My selections for this year's races had been terrible, it is so bad that I am afraid to make my selections for this Saturday's Preakness Stakes. When Mine that Bird won the Derby last week, I am not sure if I had lost my touch or the world has just went upside down.

On a positive note, I am doing very well in the 2009 Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge. Currently I am ranked 281 Out Of 4692 but I feel good about my selections. Here's a quick summary of each my pick.

El Brujo

1. El Brujo - My top point getter with 110 points. One of the top contender for the Queen's Plate.
I probably should have pick his trainer Malcolm Pierce in my pool, but you can't go want with Roger Attfield. Plate Trail on May 31st most likely is his next race.

2. Active Duty - Got 30 point for finishing 3rd in the Queenston on May 2nd. He was beaten by El Brujo for less than 3 length. I think the long distance will help him and the Plate Trail is probably next for this 3 year old.

3. Square Eddie - Finish 3rd in the Lexington last out. The connection was pointing to the Derby but common sense kicked it. The horse is being turn out not sure will make the Plate.

4. Don Valentino - Is training regularly at Woodbine but hasn't make his debug. Time is running out.

5. Eye of the Leopard - Won last week MSW with a 74 Beyers at 1 1/6 mile distance. The winning wasn't very fast but this son of A P Indy will love the 1 1/4 mile. Plate Trail or Victoria Park Stakes on June 7 is next.

6. Thor''s Piper - I think this guy finished 4 in Keeneland back in early April. It is back at woodbine but need to break it maiden fast.

7. Southdale - My Stable star that won a 7f MSW a couple of weeks ago by 5 1/2 length and earned a 88 Beyers. One of the top contenders for The Plate and major reason of me feeling good about my picks. The only negative is the horse was transferred back to Ian Black from Attfield. I am losing all my trainer's point. The Trail is next for him.

8. No More Tears - Ran 3rd recently in a MSW, will need to find a spot to break his maiden.

9. Whispered Hope - Owned my Sam Son farm but has yet to make it's Woodbine debut. Ran once at Keeneland in spring by need to break its maiden.

10. Rapid Release - ran twice at Woodbine within a week. It finished 3rd on April 26 in at 1 1/16Mile allowance race. Returned in a week later to finish 5th at the same distance. The Trail is next.

All 10 horses remain eligible after the second payment nomination on May 1st. There is a chance all 10 could start in the Queen's Plate.

2009 Kentucky Derby

It is never easy to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby, as Steve Haskin wrote in his article this week "There are no experts when it comes to the Derby. It humbles even the greatest of analytical minds". I have narrowed my Derby field down to 10 horse after eliminated all the pretenders. I spent last couple of days study each horse and watching replay of each prep races, at the end I came up with a pretty clear picture of what will happen to tomorrow.

My top pick for the Derby is #13 I want Revenge. If you have read my previous post, you know I am not a big fan of it part owner, IEAH. But I had learned my lesson and I will not let that cloud my judgement. I want Revenge is the morning line favorite and I predicted it may get bet down to 2-1. Surprisingly, I want Revenge is 6-1 in the advance on-track wagering . If i can get 5-1 at post time, I will keying him on all my wagers.

I love Dunkirk's post position, the 15th post will allows him to settle down if he breaks slowly tomorrow. His lack of seasoning is well documented, but if Big brown can win the Derby win 3 career start why not him. History is not on his side and he also have to deal with Pletcher's 0-21 streak at the Derby. If I can get 8-1, he is worth taking a shot.

I always like #19 Desert Party. The outside draw is a disadvantage but Big Brown won it with Post 20 last year and Denis of Cork finished 3rd last year from post 16.Desert Party will be overlay at post time with odds close to 20-1 which makes him very attractive for any exotics. If Dominguez can settle him in and not lose too much ground on the first turn, he will be very dangerous. Maybe this will be the year Godolphin win it first Derby

As expected #7 Papa Clem's odds dropping fast after his eye catching 3 furlong blowout of 34s from yesterday. The Arkansas Derby winner had ran 2 good race since moving to dirt track. I am hoping he is not this year's Gayego, which also won the Arkansas Derby last year but only to finish up the track. The inside post will help Papa Clem as he will be close to the pace in the early going, let hope he don't get in a speed dual with Mine that Bird or Join in the Dance.

#6 Friesan Fire is an interesting one. Not only he is currently the favorite at the advance wagering, he is also by A P Indy. That's 2 strikes against him. Friesan Fire ran a big race in the Louisiana Derby and earned a 104 Beyers, which made him a handful of horses that ran a triple digital Beyers. Rain is forecast for tomorrow and Friesan Fire will move way up on an off track.

My longshot special #17 Summer Bird. Just like Dunkirk, Summer Bird only has 3 career starts and made his debug in March this year. I was super impress with his last race and he was gaining on the leading toward the finish line. The 1 1/4M is prefect for him and the outside post will keep him out of trouble in the early going. I don't expect him to win the Derby but I won't surprise is he hit the board at 50-1.

Here's how I am going to bet tomorrow, I will use I want Revenge, Dunkirk and Desert Party on top of my trifacta tickets and add Friesan Fire and Papa Clem and Pioneer of Nile at the bottom of the tickets. I will box PC, Dunkirk, IWR and FF in another tri and exacta ticket. And last, I will put Summer bird at the 3rd spot on my tri tickets with FF, PC, IWR, Dunk DP at the top 2 spot.