2009 Woodbine Oaks

A full field of 14 are entered for tomorrow's 54th running of the Woodbine Oaks. This year renewal of the 1 1/8 mile race at the Woodbine polytrack is evenly matched, I expect good payout on all exotic wagers.

PP Horse Jockey ML

1 Indigo North Pizarro 30-1

2 Politelyprecocious Montpellier 15-1

3 Secret Wish Stein 30-1

4 Milwaukee Appeal Elliott 6-1

5 Soul of Nataka Dos Ramos 30-1

6 First Circle Jones 20-1

7 Wynning Ride Talamo 5-2

8 Koonunga Hill Wilson 20-1

9 High Mist McAleney 12-1

10 Gore Bay Sutherland 15-1

11 Double Malt da Silva 15-1

12 Academicienne Garcia 20-1

13 Tasty Temptation Husbands 7-2

14 Miss Blakely Coa 12-1

The Woodbine Oaks is a very confusing race to handicap, a lot of the horses have weakness or seem over match on paper. For the top spot and somewhat of a safe pick, I like Tasty Temptation. Tasty temptation ran second to G1 winner Hooh why in the La Lorgnette last out and earned a field high 94 Beyers. Her sire Medaglia d'Oro is red hot and his fillies already won this year's Kentucky Oaks and Black Eye Susan. Husband is leading the jockey standing by a large margin and she will most likely be the post time favorite. Tasty Temptation is making her 6th 2 turns start tomorrow and that experience will help her handle the distance.

My Second pick is Miss Blakely, one of the 3 shippers in the field. Miss Blakely has never won on dirt or synthetic surface, her 3 wins are all came on turf. Her sire Smart Strike has had many that run well on all surface and I assume she will handle Woodbine polytrack. Her post is a concern but she does have some early speed which she can be use to place in a good stalking position early. I like the fact that Coa comes in to ride her, she can hit the board with good odds.

High Mist is one of the many in here that can surprise with double digit odds. She is bred to get the trip but her lone try around 2 turns was a 18 length beat down. She finished 2nd in her last start and is working very well in the morning. She has yet to run back to his 2 years old Beyers and it makes you wonder if she have made enough progress for the Oaks. High Mist did improve her Beyer in both of her starts this year and she may rounding in form for her 3rd start of the season.

My longshot of the race, there are actually a couple and I will start with Secret Wish. Secret Wish is trained by 5-time Oaks winner Jim Day and he is carefully preparing Secret wish for this race. Secret Wish made 3 starts this year and she finally break through the 70 Beyers when she rallied to finish 3rd and earned a career best 76. She is bred to run all day and the distance should improve her chances tomorrow.

For a even a bigger longshot, I will include Soul of Nataka in my exotics. Soul of Nataka is still a maiden and just beaten by Gore Bay in her last start. And just like Gore Bay, they are the only 2 fillies that tried this distance. I just can't ignore anything from Attfield stable, especially in a Canadian Classic.

2009 Belmont Stakes

10 horses are entered for this Saturday's 141st running of the Belmont Stakes. We will have to wait another year for a triple crown winner but jockey Calvin Borel is going for his personal Triple on 2 different horses. Borel won the Derby with Mine that Bird and the Preakness with Rachel Alexandra, Mine that Bird is likely to be the odd on favorite at post time.

PP Horse Jockey ML
1 Chocolate Candy Gomez 10-1
2 Dunkirk Velazquez 4-1
3 Mr. Hot Stuff Prado 15-1
4 Summer Bird Desormeaux 12-1
5 Luv Gov Mena 20-1
6 Charitable Man Garcia 3-1
7 Mine that Bird Borel 2-1
8 Flying Private Leparoux 12-1
9 Miner's Escape Lezcano 15-1
10 Brave Victory Maragh 15-1

On paper, Mine that bird should win the Belmont easily. He is bred for the distance and is the only horse in the field to have ran triple digit Beyers twice (106 and 105). Just in case Mine that Bird didn't fire or ran into traffic problem tomorrow, I am taking a chance on Summer Bird for the the top spot.

Just like the favorite Mine that Bird, Summer Bird is also sired by Birdstone and is breded to run all day. He is also a confirmed closer and has a very similar running style of Mine that Bird. A jockey switch to Desormeaux should help and he has been training at Belmont for 2 weeks to prepare for the big race. I have no idea if he is good enough to beat Mine that bird or even Charitable Man, but at 12-1 he is worth taking a shot.

If it continue to rain tomorrow and the track comes up sloppy, I would probably just use Mine that Bird at the top of my trifacta with ALL except Brave Victory. If the track is fast, I would use both Summer Bird and Mine that Bird on the tri. My backup ticket is Charitable Man with All on my exacta ticket.