Breeders' Cup Turf

The European horses are so much better in this years Breeder's Cup Turf, the betting strategies are very simple. I will box all 4 European horse in my exactor and trifactor and hope the longest shot comes in.

#9 Conduit at 6-1 is my first pick in the Turf, it won the St Leger Stakes in his last start and has demonstrated it can get the 1 1/2 mile distance.

#11 Eagle Mountain (6-1) is trained by the world famous Michael de Kock. The turf will be his 2nd race off the long layoff and he should improve off his last win.

#2 Red Rocks (5-1) seems to always run well in North America. I am little worry about his trouble foot.

#4 Soldier of Fortune (7-2) is coming off an excellent third in the Arc. He may just be the best horse in the field.

Breeder's Cup Sprint

I like Cost of Freedom alot but he was scratched this morning by his trainer. The Sprint is a fairly evenly matched race, almost all 8 horses have a chance to capture the top price.

#2 Street Boss (3-1) is sitting on a big race. He has won 5 of 6 coming into the Sprint. His trainer is excellent with sprinter and he handle the synthetic surface very well, 12-7-3-0 on synthetic tracks.

My other choices in the race are #7 In Summation (10-1), #8 Sing Baby Sing (30-1) and #9 Fatal Bullet (6-1). All 3 of them has won recently on synthetic surface and I gave In summation the best chance to upset Street Boss.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

Just like in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf on Friday, I am picking a Euro horse as my first choice. #3 Westphalia (5-1) is making his first start over a mile in the Juvenile Turf but he has won 3 of 6 lifetime starts. Westphalia won his last race coming from off the pace. Judging from the Turf Sprint result, horse coming off the pace will hold a slight advantage in this field.

Being from Canada, I am a little bias in pick #12 Grand Adventure (5-1). The horse ran a spectacular race last out by taking the Summer Stakes and beating Skipadate by a head. Breaking from post 12 will force Bejarano to take him back to save ground in the early going. His powerful late kick would help him pick up the pieces at the end.

I don't see any live longshot in this race, both #10 Skipadate (6-1) and Bittel Road (7-2) are very strong contender.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Looks like i am running out of time, I will quickly go over my selection for the rest of the race.

I really like #11 Midshipman (5-1) in the Juvenile and I would using him on top of my exactor and trifactor tickets.

To complete the bottom of my tickets are #3 Terrain (20-1), #8 Street Hero(6-1) #6 Silent Valor, #12 Bushranger (6-1) and #13 West Side Bernie (20-1).

Street Hero Beat Midshipman last out at the Norfolk and would provide the toughest challenge to my first choice.

Terrain is a closer and the strong early pace will set him up nicely.

Silent Valor also completed in the Norfolk and finished 5th after winning the Sapling in August. I like the rider switch from Gomez to Prado.

Bushranger is the only 2 time group 1 winner in the field, must be respect for his class.

West Side Bernie is undefeated at 2 starts and it comes with good odds.

Breeders' Cup Mile

The Mile used to be the most exciting betting race of the entire Breeders' Cup card, it often produces a blanket finish. But with the addition of Turf sprint and dirt Mile, there are only 11 horse entered for this year's race.

I don't have a top choice in this race and most likely skipping it from a betting standpoint. #4 Goldikova( (3-1) is the stand out in this field but it is hard to bet her when she is 3-1 or lower. She has won 3 in a row and her last 2 are both Group 1. Her 2 lost this years was against the super filly Zarkava. If she can handle the firm group, she is much the best compare to the rest of the field.


#7 U S Ranger (15-1) seem to be a class below Goldikova when comparing their Euro form. But this year's Mile is one of the weakest in years and U S Ranger may just be good enough to take home the top price if Goldikova fails to fire.

#5 Daytona is very consistent and try hard ever time. # 6 Awesome Gem could also be a factor in this weak field.

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

I don't have a particular strong feeling about this race. # 3 Well Armed (3-1) looks like a solid favorite. In my first ever blog of this year World Cup, I picked Well Armed at over 30-1 to finished in the top 3 behind Curlin. Maybe I am a little bias, I just don't see other horse to challenge Well Armed.

Others that look interesting to me are #5 Two Step Salsa (15-1), #1 Lewis Michael (5-1) and #2 Surf Cat (6-1). Two Step Salsa looks like a synthetic surface specialist, 5-4-1-0 lifetime. Lewis Michael has been running all over the place, from 7f to 1 3/16 miles. His best distance seem to be at 1 mile. Surt cat is ultra consistent, 18 top 3 finishs in 22 lifetime start.

In this race, I may only use Well Armed at the top of my Trifactor tickets and throw in #10 Rebellion #7 Albertus Maximus.

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint is a 14 horse scramble and I demand value in this race. #10 California Flag (15-1) jumps out on me while I am looking at the pp. California Flag set the Santa Anita course record in his last race while competing the 6 1/2f in 1:11 flat. The horse have won 2 in row and 3 of last 4, it is coming into the Turf Sprint at top form. His final work of 3f at 34 4/5 s was very sharp. The outside post is a disadvantage and he could get into a speed dual that setup for a closer.

Both Euro import #2 Fleeting Spirit (5-1) and #8 Diabolical (6-1) will be coming off the pace in this race. Fleeting Spirit has only ran in straight races in Europe and the sharp left turn could be adventurous for the talented 3 years old filly. Her best race was the Temple Stakes when she missed the break and won it by coming from behind. Diabolical is slowly coming back into top form after losing 5 in a row during the summer. In his last race, the 5 years old just missed to finish 2nd while beaten by a neck.

My longshot of the race is #7 Rouse the Cat. The former 10k claimer can complete the dream seasom by wining the $1 million Turf sprint.

Breeders' Cup Marathon

Of the three new Breeders' Cup race this year, the Marathon is my favorite. At the 1 1/2 mile distance the horse either gets it or not, pedigree goes a long way in determine if the winner. This year's Marathon only have a small field of 9 horses but there some interesting live longshot..

My choices for this race are #1 Church Service(10-1), #7 Big Booster (9-2), #8 Cedar Mountain(6-1) and longshot #5 Muhannak (20-1).

One thing that I learned from Friday's Breeders' Cup races is that winners of the dirt race are all coming off the pace, Church Service suit that perfectly. Church Service has demonstrated it can get the trip by winning at 1 1/2 mile on turf multiple times. His second place finish earlier this year at the Tokyo City Handicap indicated he can handle the synthetic surface at the same distance. My only concern is his long layoff, his last race was in Aug.

Big Booster is also coming off a long layoff and his last race was the Courgar II Handicap back in July. Big Booster was the odd-on favorite for that race but only finished 3rd behind Zappa. Big Booster has been very consistent on the synthetic surface and has won 2-3 with jockey Bejarano on board. Big Booster and Church Service are both trained by Mike Mitchell who owns a very impressive 24% winning percentage.

It seems like I picked all the horse that coming off a long layoff, Cedar Mountain has not race since July. Cedar Mountain trainer Drysdale is excellent in getting his horse ready after extended time off. The distance is well within Cedar Mountain range as he won at 1 3/4 mile on turf earlier this year. This lightly race 5 years old could surprise is decent odds.

Muhannak is based in England but regularly compete on synthetic surface. This is a major class jump for him but you also get him at long odds.

Breeders' Cup Lady Classic

With a small field of 8 horse entered in this year Lady Classic, all you need to know is Zenyatta (3-5). The undefeated 4 years old Zenyatta is a "monster". She is 8 for 8 lifetime and she had already destroyed most of the field this year. Zenyatta will probably be the 2nd better favorite behind Curlin if she is to run in the Classic on Saturday. The only horse in this field that can run with her is the the synthetic specialist Carriage Trail. Carriage Trail is the unknown in this field and her career best may challenge Zenyatta.

Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf

I will be very happy if I can 4-1 on #8 Halfway To Heaven at post time. Halfway to Heaven has won 3 out of her last 4 race and they are all G1. Unlike most European horse, Halfway to Heaven already won on firm group and She should handle to expected firm going in tomorrow's race.

#3 Forever Together (6-1) has two G1 win this season. She won her last race, the G1 First Lady Stakes easily by 1 1/2 length at 1 mile. Forever Together has never race past 1 1/8 miles and 1 1/4 miles distance of the Filly and Mare Turf is a major concern. Since she is a stone cold closer, she will be way out of it at the beginning. In a relative small field of 10 horse, traffic shouldn't be a problem and a ground saving trip would be key to her victory.

For longshot, I like #6 Dynaforce (6-1) and #10 Pure Clan (15-1). Unlike Forever Together, Dynaforce has ton of stamina and excel in long distance races. If she can avoid a speed dual with Folk Opera at the early going, she may have enough to hold at the end. Pure Clan is a 3 years old that done well on both dirt and turf. She is 4 for 5 on turf and won the American Oak this summer after finishing 3rd in the Kentucky Oak. The firm ground and the 1 1/4 mile should also help her chances.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, I probably should pick a filly from West coast with synthetic surface experience but my instinct tells me # 4 Sky Diva(7-2) could be something special. Sky Diva is undefeated in 2 starts and won the Frizette at Belmont in her last start by 3 3/4 length. Her sire Sky Mesa was undefeated at 2 years old and very brilliantly fast. She had trained well on polytrack but it will be interesting to see how she handle the Pro-ride surface during the race. At post 4, she will avoid all the traffic from 1st turn while enjoy a ground saving trip.

My second choice is the favorite #10 Stardom Bound (2-1). Stardom Bound had won back to back G1 coming into the Juvenile Fillies and she easily won her last race on the Pro-Ride surface at the same distance. Stardom Bound is a closer and her post 10 could get her into trouble in this 13 horse field. If she gets a clean trip, she will be hard to beat.

The rest of the filed are fairly evenly matched. For values, I like #13 Doremifasollatido at 15-1. Her post and the distance could be a disadvantage for her but her last race was awesome.
Another Closer #1 Evita Argentina (15-1) is training well in the morning. She has a big closing kick and she will able to save ground of both turn while breaking from the 1 hole. The stretch out in distance from 7f to 1 1/16 mile will help her chance.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf is one of the 3 new race in this years Breeders' Cup. With a full field of 12 fillies expected to start, this is one of the most evenly match race on the card. With 8 horses at odds of 10-1 or lower, this is an excellent betting race and tons of values.

My first choice is #12 Heart Shaped at 15-1 morning line. Heat shaped is own by the powerful Coolmore connection and based in Ireland. She has only 1 win in 5 lifetime starts. The increase in distance and the firm ground maybe just what her need to break through.

#8 Sugar Mom (10-1) has won her last 3 race impressively but this is her first start on turf. Sugar Mom is by Monarchos and out of the Ascot Knight mare Plenty of Sugar. Plenty of sugar is a multiple stakes winner in Canada and ran her best race on Dirt. Sugar Mom does own an 3 for 3 record synthetic surface it may help her transforms her recent success onto turf. I really like her consistency and her big closing kick is prefect for this race.

To complete my exotic wagers, I also like # 7 Consequence (8-1) and #3 Maram (10-1). Consequence finished 4th in her last start and beaten by Marm for 1/4 length. The Miss Grillo Stakes was only her 2nd career start and she should improve alot from that effort. Maram comes into this race undefeated in 2 starts. At odds 10-1 or high, she is a must use in the exotics.

Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

The first Breeders' Cup race on Friday is the Filly and Mare Sprint. I like the idea of splitting the Breeders' Cup races into 2 days but I hate it for them to start on Friday. Don't they know people do work on Friday and I will most likely to miss all the earlier races on Friday including this one.

The Filly and Mare Sprint race is a 7 furlong race on Dirt and from an earlier report #2 Indyanne may scratch due to fever.


Last year 2 years old champion #5 Indian Blessing is the morning line favorite at 2-1 and also the horse to beat. Indian Blessing had won 3 in a row and is 2 for 2 at seven furlong. The only question is her ability to handle the Pro-Ride surface of the Santa Anita. Her last 3 works at Santa Anita are ok but a lot of people like her final workout on Saturday for 59 1/5 sec at 5f. I really like her chances at 7f, at post 5 she can stalk the pace and draw off while turning for home.

Since I picked Indian Blessing as my first choice, I will have to find a few other horses with value in this big field. #9 Dearest Trickski is my 2nd pick of this race. Dearest Trickski (15-1) is a very fast filly and she owns a 8-6-1-0 record on synthetic surface. Her last race at Del Mar, she set the course record of 6 1/2 furlong in 1:15 flat. Unfortunately she drew post 9 and she runs better when she is on the lead. There are a few horses that inside of her will also be gunning for the lead and it could keep her wide for most of her trip.

The other 2 horses that I like in the race are #6 Zofig(8-1) and #10 Miraculous Miss (20-1). In a race that a load with speed, this 2 closer could make a late run and pick up the pieces if the speed fall apart. Zofig had been off since his monster effort in the Acorn in June when she run a 113 Beyer and beating Indian Blessing by 4 1/2 length. Her health is a question mark but she is training well in recent weeks. Miraculous Miss ran 2nd in this race last year at odds of 43.5-1 and she will be a longshot again this year. Miraculous Miss is winless in last 10 starts and she will be more than 10 length behind in the early part of the race. I don't see Miraculous Miss but she is a must use in all exotics wagers.

I also like #12 Ventura (5-1) but she will most likely be overbet at post time and I prefer values in a 14 horse field.

Breeders' Cup 2008

This year's Breeders' Cup entries was draw yesterday and the number of Breeders' Cup races were increased from 11 to 14 this year. On Friday Oct 24, all 5 Breeders' Cup races are restricted to fillies or mares. On Saturday the 25th, there will be 9 mores exciting races including the $5 million Classic.

In the past years, I would only bet on a couple of the races because it is impossible to pick the winner of every races. This year, I have signed up for the NTRA Breeders' Cup pick all challenge and this contest requires all player to pick a winner for each race. Over the next few days I will be posting my selection of each race and highlighted the one that I have more confident.

Casino Drive

I am a sucker for a well bred horse and there isn't a horse with a better pedigree than Casino Drive in this year Breeder's Cup Classic. Casino Drive is a 3 years old by Horse of the year Mineshaft and out of the 2007 Broodmare of the year Better Than Honour. He is the half-brother of the 2 Belmont Stakes winners (Jazil and Rags to Riches).

Casino Drive is based in Japan and was shipped to US to compete in the Belmont stakes earlier this year. After winner the Peter Pan Stakes as his prep, he injured his foot the night before Belmont and was scratched on race day. His connection shipped him back to Japan after the Belmont and start preparing him for the Breeders' Cup Classic.

I have no idea if this horse is good enough to win the Classic, as Curlin is clearly the horse to beat. Casino Drive was never asked in any of his races, it won all 3 starts with ease. His final prep race at Santa Anita was nothing more than a workout for him but it showed he likes the track. He won it by 3/4 length but was in control from start to finish. Check out the video below

If Casino Drive win this year's Breeders' Cup Classic, his trainer Kazuo Fujisawa deserve all the credit for getting this horse ready. In the history of the Breeders' Cup, I doubt there is another horse with a more unusual schedule before such a big race. He is more than likely to be over bet at the Classic and it is probably wishful thinking in my part to think he can beat Curlin or other more seasoned horses like Tiago and Student Council. But if he can run to his potential and Curlin fails to run his race on the Pro-Ride surface, Casino Drive is going to be very close at the finish.

Big Brown’s retirement

Big Brown’s retirement from Monday shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone in the racing world. The horse did legitimately injury itself, but how much do its connection really want to face Curlin in the Breeders' Cup Classic based on its last 2 wins. Big Brown's didn't beat anyone in the Haskell Invitational and the Monmouth stakes. His last 2 races Beyer figure of 105 and 106 which are well below Curlin's 111 and 112.

A lot of people in the media hype up Big Brown as the super horse, including my favorite writer Steve Haskin but I strongly disagree. Big Brown is a very good horse and probably the best in this 3 years old crop except for Casino Drive. His victory in the Derby was visually impressive but he beat a very weak field. From all the horses that ran in the Derby, none of them had beat older horse and only Colonel John managed to won a G1 after the derby.

If you had read my previous blog, you know how I feel about Big Brown's connection. To sum it, I strongly dislike them. They were classless, and all they want is the spotlight. Now that they got their $60 millions, I hope I never hear from them again.

On the same day that Big Brown retires, the brilliant undefeated Arc winner Zarkava also retired by her own The Age Khan. The 3 years old filly won all 7 of her career starts and is book to Dalakhani, the 2003 Arc winner. In her last race, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe she beat older male easily by 2 length while trailing most for the way. A lot of people of are sad to see Zarkave including myself but there is really nothing left for Zarkava. Unless they plan on running her in the next year Dubai world cup on dirt, she had already done everything in her short career.

Luck is everything

We were home early tonight and I got a few minutes to watch the Woodbine evening race card. Since race 4 was coming up, so I started handicapping the race.

Race 4 is an Maiden Special Weight for filly 3 years old and up.

After a quick look at the racing form, I like #1 Alystar Lady, #2 Chusan, #4 Corbin's Bay and #7 Madame Toumanova.

Alystar Lady - Let just say I have inside information about this horse and it is ready for a big race. Honestly, I didn't see anything from the workout and the 1 hole is no good for first time starter, I normally would have pass but I keep him just in case my source is for real :-).

Chusan - another first time starter. This one is difference than Alystar Lady. I like the work pattern, it has been training since July for this start. Bold Executive is a good first time starter sire and her trainer Reade Baker is red hot lately. I am a little surprise that the horse got off at 21-1 odds.

Corbin's Bay - is the deserving favorite. It just missed in her last race and she own the higest beyer in the field.

Madame Toumanova - showed speed in her last race and just got beat to finish 2nd in her last race. Baker also is the trainer for this one and I thought he had a good chance to be 1-2 in this race.

After being interrupted a few times by my kids, i didn't have time to make the wagers. I would have box all 4 in an exactor and a triactor tickets. I watched the race anyway to see if Alystar Lady will surprise me . As they were turning for home, Alystar Lady was long gone. Chusan and Corbin's Bay were battling each other in deep stretch to a photo finish and I thought Chusan may have won it at the inside. Madame Toumanova hang on to finish 3rd. Just as I was kicking myself for missing another long shot payout, the inquiry sign went on. You can read the chart for the detail of the incident at the stretch. The bottomline is, Chusan was DQ and placed 4th and my would be triactor ticket was gone too.

The race reminds me in horse racing, you need to be good but you also need to be lucky to cash your tickets.

Unbelievable

Sometimes I am so good that I even surprise myself. As I wrote in my blog yesterday, I liked Doctor Dino, Marsh Side, Spice Route and Lucarno in today Canadian International. Guss what, March Side and Spice Route finished 1-2 in the the $2 million race the $2 exactor paid $1062.20.

Unfortunately for me, I didn't place any bet on the race even I correctly picked the 2 long shot finishers.

On paper, the Canadian International is a very weak field. Just by looking at the past performance, March side and Spice Route really jumps out on me. I don''t know if Marsh Side will run next in the Breeder's Cup Turf but I don't think he has a chance against some of the best in Euro.

Storming Off

Today will mark the first time that I am involve in claiming a horse. The horse that we try to claim is call Storming off and it is entered in Race 1 at Belmont for a $35k Tag. Storming Off is by Theatrical(Ire) out of a Storm Cat Mare Stormy Sea, he is a 3 year old bred by Overbrook farm. I have been following this horse since July 31 when he ran in a $45K claiming race at Sara toga. He won that race easily as the odd on favorite and was claimed by his current connection. His last race (a $60K claiming) was very impressive, he finished 3rd and lost by 2 length to G2 winner Stream of Gold. Stream of Gold already came back and ran 2nd in the Kentucky Turf Cup(G2) last weekend. Storming off last 3 races Beyers are 89, 86 and 86 and to me he is a real bargain at $35k level. Let's just hope the horse come back sound and healthy.

Update : We just find out Storming off had a blown tendon, we are now switching our focus to Crimson Comic. But instead of claiming the horse, we are looking into purchasing the horse privately after his race today.

Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge

Here's another free online handicapping contest to test out your skills. The Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge is offered by NTRA and the grand prize is $10,000 cash. The top 3 finishers will also earn a berth to the Daily Racing Form/NTRA National Handicapping Championship.

The game is very simple, all you have to do is to pick a horse from each of the 54 Breeders' Cup challenge race. If the horse finished in the top 2, you will earn money. The person with the most money at the end of Oct 9, 2008 win the contest. The first 2 races are in this Saturday, so early up and sign up.

2008 Queen's Plate Recap

The result of the 2008 Queen's Plate was very predictable, Not Bourbon, the 3rd choice in the 14-horse field held off 2-1 favorite Ginger Brew by a head. The 3-1 second choice Solitare rally from far back to finish 3rd. I predicted this will be a very bad betting race and I was smart enough to not put any money on it. The $2 trifecta only paid $83.30..which I will for sure lose money.

Although I did not bet on the Queen's Plate but I was still very interested in the race because of the Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge. I had 3 horses running in the Queen's Plate - Not Bourbon, Deputiformer and Palmers. I got a feeling Deputiformer will run a a big race based on it final workout, he finished 4th and beaten by a neck for third at odds 22-1. Palmers is a difficult horse to figure out, it finished 2nd last out and had been close for the last couple of race. He was charging at the end and finished 5th, another neck behind Deputiformer at odds 23-1. With the 4th and 5th place points I got from Deputiformer and Palmers, I finished 29th of 4473 in the Queen's Plate Challenge and won an exclusive Queen's Plate hat and golf shirt. I know some people would prefer money but I am happy to have the bragging right.

Karma strikes again

I am so glad that Big Brown didn't win the Triple Crown. When you look at how the classless Rick Durtow handle himself in defeat, you know no one feel sorry for him. I don't think Nick Zito went to apologize to Big Brown's connection like he did in 2004 when Birdstone foiled Smart Jones Triple Crown bid. Durtow was arrogant and cocky throughout the last 5 weeks and show no respect for his opponents. When he was ask if he regretted being so boastful in the last weeks, his quote was "I just went by what I was feeling. I'm sure that that didn't get him beat or have him pull up.”. I guess he has never heard of karma.

Another sign of karma was for the winning training Nick Zito. Zito released John Velazquez from Da'Tara to ride Ready's Echo just a week before Belmont. I remembered Zito was quoted as saying "He and LaPenta believe in good karma and they will find a good rider to ride their horse". It turn out he was banged on.

As a racing fan, I would love to see a Triple Crown winner. When it finally happens, I am sure it will be something special. It makes appreciate the other 11 Triple Crown winners and how special they really are.

Only in America: Why did Kent Desormeaux eased Big Brown in the stretch? He said it himself, the horse was not hurt and he just didn't fire for the race. I thought jockey's job is to ride thier horse to the best possible finish in any given race. If it is in Hong Kong, he will get a lengthy suspension..unbelievable.

Will karma strike against Big Brown's connection?

I am rooting against Big Brown to win the Triple Crown Tomorrow. I don't often agree with Andrew Beyer but his article on DRF.com was bang on.

Big Brown's owner Michael Iavarone is a scammer, he represents himself as a high profile investment banker but the true is he is a penny stock trader that was fined and suspended for securities offenses. Now that people are after him, all he had to say is .."that was the past".

Big Brown's trainer Rick Dutrow is a jerk, he was fined a number of times for horses he trained tested with over legal limit of drugs. Last week at a press conference, he even said that Big Brown winning the Belmont is a forgone conclusion. I just hope when Big Brown lose tomorrow, someone stick it to him...

As for my pick..I really have no betting in the race. Dennis the cork and Macho Again is the 2 most likely winner if Big Brown failed to stay the 1 1/2 miles distance. I also really like Casino Drive and how his connection is handling the horse. But with the news of stone bruise in the horse left hind foot, it is difficult to bet him at low odds.

2008 Kentucky Derby

This is it, the big one is finally here. A full field of 20 horses will compete in this year's Kentucky Derby on Saturday. Florida Derby winner Big Brown is trying to win the Derby off 3 career starts while starting from the outside post 20. The last horse to win the Derby with 3 careers is Regret in 1915 and no horse has ever win from post 20 since 1929 (Clyde Van Dusen in 1929 won the Derby with a walk-up start). Big Brown is expected to be a short price and I will try beat him with better price horses.

Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John is ready for a top effort judging from his final workout which he breezed a 5f in 57 4/5, fastest of 62 at the same distance. Colonel John is one of the 2 horses that had won two 1 1/8 miles race coming into the Derby and he is bread to run all day. Colonel John will be running on dirt for the first and he must avoid traffic to setup his stretch run. With some racing luck, Colonel John should be flying at the end.

Gayego is another Southern Cal horse that I like and he proved me wrong in the Arkansas Derby. Gayego won the Arkansas Derby while stalking the early leader and held off the fast charging Z Fortune at the wire to win by 3/4 length. Gayego has already outrun his pedigree and his post 19 is not going to help. This horse remind me of Lion Heart who Mike Smith guided to a 2nd place finish in the 2004 Derby. Both colt has very similar front running styles and a lot of tactical speed to avoid traffic in the early part of the race. At 15-1 or higher, I am sticking with Gayego and hoping he can do better than Lion Heart.

Court Vision finished third in the Wood Memorial for his last race but he had dramatically improves since arrived at Churchill Downs. He worked 4f in 46 1/5 on April 17 and then followed that up with another 5f work in 1:00 4/5 on Sunday. We know he like the dirt at Churchill Downs as he won the 1 mile Iroquois last year on the same track. Count Vision is a confirm closer and Mott is adding blinker in the Derby to try to get him closer to pace, he was 18 length behind at the quarter pole in the wood. On paper Court Vision has one of the slowest Beyers Figure (90) in the field, but he should improve with the added distance.

Z Fortune ran a hugh race in his last start while finishing 2nd to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby. The Steve Asmusseen trained colt had eared some very strong late pace figures in his career except for the Rebel Stakes which he failed to fire as the odd on favorite. At odds 15-1 or higher, Z Fortune is a must use in my trifecta wagers.

Pyro failed as the odds on favorite in the Blue Glass Stakes but that was run on the polytrack. Pyro has a very explosive turn of foot and his win in Risen Star was one of the best race by a 3 year old this year. Pyro's stamina remained a big question mark as he has never won beyond 1 1/16 mile but he is capable of hitting board with a good stretch run.

Here's how I place my bet. Court Vision, Colonel John and Gayego for the top spot of the trifecta bets, i will add Z Fortune, Pyro and big Brown to round out the bottom 2 spots. Also a 4 horse trifecta box of Big Brown, Z Fortune, Colonel John and Gayego, just in case Big Brown is a freak. A couple of backup exactor tickets, Colonel John and Gayego box with Monba, Denis of Cork, Smooth Air, Tale of Ekati and Adriano.

Good luck and I am looking forward to cash my tickets.

Kentucky Oaks

For the pass years, I was never a big fan of the Kentucky Oaks mostly because it runs on a Friday afternoon. This year will be my first attempt at picking a Oaks winner and here's a quick look of the field.

PP, HORSE, JOCKEY
1. GOLDEN DOC, DESORMEAUX
2. ABSOLUTELY, LEPAROUX
3. AWESOME CHIC, ALBARADO
4. ELUSIVE LADY, COA
5. RASIERRA,THERIOT H J II
6. COUNTRY STAR, BEJARANO
7. LITTLE BELLE, MARAGH
8. PROUD SPELL, SAEZ
9. A TO THE CROFT, BOREL
10. BSHARPSONATA, CAMACHO
11. PURE CLAN, PRADO
12. EIGHT BELLES, DOMINGUEZ


My top pick for this year's Oaks is the double Grade 1 winner Country Star and likely second betting choice at post time. There are a lot to like about Country Star, she is trained by Hall of famer Bobby Frankel (2 times Oakes winner, Flute in 2001 and Keeper Hill in 1998) and is sired by Belmont winner Empire Maker. Country Star won the Alcibiades and Hollywood Starlet to close out her 2 year-old season but only made one start this year.
Country Star finished 5th in her last race and she is likely to improve in her 2nd start since layoff. The Oaks is shaping up to be a paceless race, Country Star and Bejarano could find themselves closer to the pace when turning for home. If Country Star can rebound from her last race, she will out kick the rest of the field.

Proud Spell has earned one of the highest Beyers figures (99) in the Oaks. Proud Spell beat last year 2 year-old champion filly Indian Blessing in the Fair Ground Oaks and then finished 3rd in her last race at Keenland. Proud Spell is training very well at Churchill Downs and seem to like the dirt track. She worked a very impress 5f for 58 2/5 on the April 27 and is prime for a big effort.

Florida Oaks winner Awesome Chic is my long shot of the race. Awesome Chic is bred to run all day, she is by Awesome Again and her dam sire is AP Indy. In her first and only race around 2 turns, she won the Florida Oaks by 4 1/2 length. At post 3, Albarado should able save group around both turn while close to the pace and she can suprise at long odds.

Little Belle has won 3 in a row coming into this race. In her last race the Ashland, she hang on to beat Bsharpsonata by a neck. Little Belle is the lone speed in the race, Maragh will try to slow down the early pace to steal the race.

Queen's Plate Update

Harlem Rocker beat the highly regarded J Be K in the Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct on Saturday to remain undefeated in 3 starts. Harlem Rocker was settling in the 3rd place in the early going while J Be K set the pace. J Be K had a 2 length advantage while turning for home and Harlem Rocker was closing 4-wide under Eibar Coa. Harlem Rocker zoom pass the leader at the mid-stretch and easily won by 2 1/2 length. Harlem Rocker will probably have one more prep before Queen's Plate and could be the favorite at race time.

There are other Queen's plate contenders raced over the weekend.

Giquere and Deputiformer completed in the Wando Stakes at Woodbine on Friday. Both Michael Depaulo trains colts were no matched to the Kentucky bred Bonanze and finished 2nd and 5th respectively. Deputiformer performance was rather disappointing consider he finished 3rd to Big Brown in his last race. Their next race are likely the Marine Stakes on May 17 or the Plate Trail on June 1st.

Shilla and Gloriosuly both top Woodbine Oaks contenders face off against each on Sunday in the Fury Stakes at Woodbine. Shilla caught Gloriosuly at the wire to win by a nose, both fillies remain on target for the Oaks. There is always a chance one of them to show up in the Queen's Plate but I don't think either one of them can get the 1 1/4 miles.

Tomcito update

Tomcito, the mystery horse from Peru has drawn a lot of public interest after his 3rd finish in the Florida Derby. Tomcito finsihed 6th in the Lexington in his last race and is unlikely to draw into the Derby field. He currently ranks 25th in the graded stakes earning list and will need a lot of defections. Tomcito's connection is still prepping for the Derby and he galloped 1 3/4 miles at Churchill Downs this morning. Dante Zanelli, Tomcito's trainer, indicated if Tomcito missed the Derby he will wait for the Belmont and may use the Peter Pan as a prep race.

A P Indy Factor

When it comes to the Kentucky Derby every racing fan have its own theory of tossing horse out of the large Derby field and I am no exception. I came up with this theory a few years ago and I call it the A P Indy factor.

A P Indy factor basically described any A P Indy colts will get over bet at the Derby and the horse becomes an automatic toss out from any Win bets.

It is actually very easy to understand the reasons behind the A P Indy factor.

1. A P Indy offspring usually command high $$ at auction and most public think expensive yearling = good horse.

2. A P Indy is 2 times leading sire of the year and sired more than 110 stakes winner. A P Indy offspring = good horses.

3. A P Indy won the Belmont Stakes and his offspring excel at longer distance. But his offspring are often late maturing.

Let take a closer at how some of the A P Indy colts had fared in the Derby over the last 10 years.

Old Trieste (1998) - won an 1 mile allowance race as the final prep of the Derby and finished 10th of 15th.

Stephen Got Even (1999) - won the Galleryfurniture.com Stakes (Lane's End Stakes) and finished 14th of 19th in the Derby. Stephen Got Even entered the Derby with 1 stakes win but was bet down to single digital odds.

Aptitude (2000) - 3rd in the Wood Memorial and finished 2nd in the Derby. The best finish by any A P Indy offspring.

A.P. Valentine (2001) - 5th in the Blue Glass Stakes and finished 7th of 17th in the Derby. He did come back to finished 2nd in both Preakness and Belmont to Point Given

Atswhatimtalknbout ( 2003) - 900K yearling and finished 4th in the Santa Anita Derby. Atswhatimtalknbout also got bet down to single digital odds and finished 4th of 16th.

Friends Lake (2004) - won the Florida Derby in his final prep before the Derby and finished 15th of 18th.

A P Warrior (2006) - 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby and finished 18th of 20th.

For this year's Derby, there is one horse by A P Indy is pointing toward the derby and that is Adriano. Adriano won the Lane's End in his last start and should be at least 15-1 long shot in the Derby field. I got the the feeling his odds will likely drop down to single digital when the gate open. There is a lot of interest in this hourse after his last workout at Churchill Downs. I will be tossing out Adriano if he gets over bet.

Let see if the A P Indy factor hold true this year.

Kentucky Derby Workouts

We are less than 2 weeks aways from this years Kentucky Derby and a lot of the contenders are tuning up for the big race.
Here's a quick look at the some of the horses that worked last few days.

Court Vision - worked 4f in 46 1/5 secs at Churchill Downs Thursday morning and the move was fastest of 25 at the distance. Court Vision normally is not a good work horse in the morning and this work had caught a lot of people attention and shown he loves Churchill Downs. Bill Mott, Court Vision's trainer, added blinkers on him for this work and that would explain the fast work time. Court Vision is one of my Top 5 derby horse and it would be interesting to see how he fairs in his next work. If he can be closer to the pace, he will be flying at the stretch.

Smooth Air - worked 7f in 1:25:80 at Calder on Saturday morning. Bennie Stutts Jr, Smooth Air trainer, is putting many 1 mile work into Smooth Air and is building up his stamina. Stutts had done a great job prepping him for the the Florida Derby which he finished 2nd and he could surprise again in the Derby with long odds.

Colonel John - one of my top pick for the Derby worked 59.40 secs for 5f at Santa Anita on Sunday morning. Colonel John completed his final quarter in 23.20 secs. I am looking forward to his next and final workout before the Derby which will be at Churchill Downs, it will give us a good indication of how he handle the dirt track.

Adriano - worked in company for 5f in 1:01 4/5 secs at Churchill Downs Sunday morning. Adriano started 3 lengths behind his workmate but pasted him at the stretch and finish 3 lengths in front. Edger Prado was aboard for the work and both Prado and Graham Motion, Adraino's trainer, were very pleased with the work. Adriano is a flashy looking son of A P Indy and I will explain the A P Indy factor in the Derby tomorrow.

Denis of Cork - worked 5f in 1:00 at Churchill Downs Monday with Calvin Borel aboard. Denis of Cork seem to like the Churchill Downs surface as his work was the fastest of 18 at the same distance. After a dull effort in Illinois Derby which he finished 5th, it will take a monster effort for him to be a factor at the Derby.

Pyro - worked 6f in the fog on Monday morning at Keenland and no time was given by the clockers. A lot of people had already jumped off Pyro bandwagon and I am not convinced he can bounce back from a 10th place effort in the Blue Glass Stakes to be competitive.

Coolmore Lexington Stakes

This Saturday's Coolmore Lexington Stakes represents the last chance for any 3 years old trying to stamp its ticket to this year Kentucky Derby. Seven of the last nine winners of the Lexington Stakes have wheeled back in 2 weeks later for the Run for the Roses and there is a good chance this year's winner and runner-up will run back in the Derby.

Here's a quick look at the field.

PP, Horse, Weight, Jockey
1. Atoned, 117, Edgar Prado
2. Salute the Sarge, 117, Michael Baze
3. Samba Rooster, 117, Garrett Gomez
4. St. Joe, 117, Miguel Mena
5. Racecar Rhapsody, 117, Robby Albarado
6. Felon, 117, Julien Leparoux
7. Behindatthebar, David Romero Flores
8. Tomcito, 123, Jorge F. Chavez
9. Big Glen, 119, Rene Douglas
10. Riley Tucker, 117, John Velazquez
11. Red Sandy, 117, Jamie Theriot

This is a very difficult race to handicap because of my bias toward Tomcito. Tomcito has become the wise guys' horse after his 3rd place finish in the Florida Derby behind Big Brown and Smooth Air. I picked Tomcito when he was 12-1 in Florida Derby and he will get bet down to 5-1 on Saturday. Tomcito worked a bullet in his final workout, clocked a 4f in 46 3/5 secs. The 1 1/6 miles is not his ideal distance but this could set him up nicely for the Derby in 2 weeks. As a closer, he will have to be closer to the early pace to win but he will be running at the end and finish in top 3.

Racecar Rhapsody already won at the Keenland polytrack last year. He made his season debut in the Lane's End Stakes and finished 4th beaten by 4 lengths. Racecar Rhapsody should improve off his last effort and his connection is hoping a win on Saturday will take him to the Derby. Racecar Rhapsody should also benefit from a hot early pace.

St. Joe could surprise with good odds on Saturday. St. Joe is expected to set a honest pace with Samba Rooster for the early part of the race. St. Joe has 2 career wins and both were at Keenland, it shows he would do well on the polytrack. His last race was a very fast 7f allowance that he won going wire to wire. If St. Joe can layoff Samba Rooster at the early going, he will be tough to beat when turning for home.

On paper Riley Tucker looks over match but I got to look for value in an even match race. Riley Tucker finished 2nd in his last race, Transylvania Stakes, which was run at the same distance as the Lexington. Riley Tucker has only 1 career win but is very consistent with a 1-3-1 record in 6 lifetime starts. Post 10 is not ideal but if he can get into a good position going into first turn, he can post a mild upset.

Go Gayego Go

Gayego won the Arkansas Derby impressivly on Saturaday and completed the 1 1/8 miles race in a solid 1.49.63 seconds. Before the race, I questioned if Gayego can handle the distance.

By Gilded Time and out of a Lost Code mare, Gayego is breded to be a miler. In the Arkansas Derby, Gayego stalked the front runner(Tres Borrachos) with very fast fractions -- :22.71, :46.61, and 1:11.09. Gayego took the lead while turning for home and the second place finisher Z Fortune almost pull even at the final furlong. Gayego was able to find more in the tank while under left handed urging from Mike Smith to win by 3/4 lenght.

By winning the race, Gayego also showed he can handle dirt surface after running only on California's synthetic tracks. Gayego early speed could be vital in a large field like the Kentucky Derby, it will keep him out of trouble in the early going.

After Saturaday's performance, Gayego and Colonel John are my top 2 choices going into the Kentucky Derby.

Arkansas Derby

14 horses are entered for this Saturday $1 million Arkansas Derby. Since there is no obvious stand out in the race, I will be looking for value in my selections.
Here's a quick look at the field and you can the Past Performances from DRF.com


PP, Horse, Weight, Jockey

1. Victory Pete, 118, Clinton Potts
2. Tres Borrachos, 118, Tyler Baze
3. Shekinah, 118, Christopher Emigh (f)
4. King's Silver Son, 118, Luis Quinonez
5. Gayego, 122, Mike Smith
6. Isabull, 118, Timothy Doocy
7. My Pal Charlie, 118, Julien Leparoux
8. Blackberry Road, 118, Calvin Borel
9. Liberty Bull, 122, Eusebio Razo, Jr.
10. Golden Yank, 122, Larry Sterling, Jr.
11. Ablaze With Spirit, 122, M. Clifton Berry (f)
12. Z Fortune, 122, Robby Albarado
13. Indian Sun, 118, Richard Migliore
14. Jazz in the Park, 118, Miguel Mena (f)

(f) mutuel field

Liberty Bull won its last race, the Win Star Derby at the same distance and spot a 3-2-1 record in 6 lifetime starts. Liberty Bull will be stalking the early hot pace and should be right there when the field turning for home. I think he can pull off a mild upset.

The Steve Asmussen train King's Silver Son finished 2nd in the Rebel Stakes at old 17-1. King's Silver Son was flying at the stretch in his last race but couldn't catch the winner. The added distance and honest pace would help his chance.

Blackberry Road was one of the top 2 year old when he finished 2nd in the Kentucky Jockey Club. After finished off the board in its last 2 starts, he should provide good odds for this race. Blackberry Road is a closer and only have 1 career win. He will need the race to fall apart to win but he should benefit from an expected hot pace early.

Isabull is the other son of Holly Bull in the field. Isabull finished 3rd in the Rebel, 2 3/4 lengths behind King's Silver Son. Isabull will need another ground saving trip to hit the board and could surprise with long odds.

I will box all 4 horses for my exactor wagers. As for my trifecta tickets, I will use Liberty Bull and King's Silver Son to win, Blackberry Road, Isabull, Gayego and the mutuel field to fill out the bottom of the tickets. Gayego is expected to be on the early lead, just in case it lasted for a show spot. You get 3 horses for betting the mutuel field, it is a must use in the trifecta.

2008 Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge

Woodbine's Thoroughbred racing season started last Saturday and the Queen's Plate will be run on June 22nd, 2008. Queen's plate is the Canadian equivalent of the Kentucky Derby and you can find out more about this year's event here.

Woodbine is also bringing back the Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge for the 9th year. The Challenge is free to enter and limited one entry per person. This year top prize is $5000 better voucher and top 13 finishers all get a prize.

Here're my selections of my stable.

Horse
Cool Gator
Handsome Blue
Harlem Rocker
Giquere
Deputiformer (Stable Star)
Stuck in Traffic
Not Bourbon
Palmers
Gloriously
Knotty Knotty

Jockey (Group 1)
Jono Jones
Jockey (Group 2)
Richard dos Ramos
Jockey (Group 3)
Slade Callaghan

Trainer (Group 1)
Michael DePaulo
Trainer (Group 2)
Roger Attfield
Trainer (Group 3)
Mike Keogh

Please let War Pass win the Wood Memorial

Last year's 2 year old champion War Pass will face 9 other 3 year olds in the 1 1/8 miles Wood Memorial on Saturday. War Pass reminded me a lot of 1997 Horse of the Year Favorite Trick.

Both War Pass and Favorite Trick sires are sprinters and they like to race in the front. Both horses are undefeated as a 2 year old and won the Breeder's cup Juvenile by large margin. Both horse failed to win their distance test as a 3 year old. War Pass finished last in the 1 1/16 miles Tampa Bay Derby and Favorite Trick finished a close 3rd in the Arkansas Derby. Amazingly Favorite Trick was the 2nd betting choice in the 1998 Derby despite his obvious distance limitation.

If somehow War Pass manage to win the Wood Memorial this Saturday, he will be one of the top 3 choices comes the Derby time. War Pass is an automatic toss out for me if he makes it to the Derby, just liked I didn't bet a penny on Favorite Trick in his Derby while hitting the trifecta.

Big Brown will not win the Derby

You heard it right, I will be betting against Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby. The unbeaten Big Brown is the 3-1 morning line favorite for the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool and he will get plenty of support base on his smashing performance in the Florida Derby.

Big Brown won the $1-million Florida Derby with only 2 lifetime starts and just missed the track record for the 1 1/8 miles by 2/5 of a second. There is no doubt the horse has accomplished a lot in his short career but so did last year Horse of the Year Curlin. Curlin won the Arkansas Derby by a record 10½ lengths also in his 3rd career start and was the 5-1 second choice in the 2007 Derby. Curlin only managed to finish 3rd in the Derby behind Street Sense while running into traffic problem in the 20 horses field.

There are more than just his inexperience working against Big Brown in the Derby, his pedigree and heath issues are also causes for concern.

Big Brown is by Boundary and his dam sire is Nureyev, both are know to produce miler and sprinter. Although many miler has sired Derby winners (Smarty Jones, War Emblem and Funny Cide) in recent years, it does take a special horse and a perfect setup for a horse to outrun its pedigree to win at 1 1/4 miles.

Big Brown has been dealing with quarter crack issues all his career. He won his 2nd career race with only 3 morning works following a quarter crack and has only 5 published works before the Florida Derby.

Although I don't like Big Brown chance of winning of the Derby, I will use him in the bottom of the my exacta and trifecta wagers. This horse may just be as good as Curlin.

Notes : I love the race by Tomcito. Althought he was beaten over 12 length by Big Brown, he did finish 3rd while closing from last. The horse has not run since Nov 2007 and the Florida Derby was his first race in US. Tomcito will probably pass the Derby but he will need one more prep race. He is a must use if he show up in the Peakness or the Belmont Stakes.

Florida Derby

With the racing world focus their attention on the Dubai World cup, the $1 million Florida Derby is the forgotton race this Saturday.

This year's Florida Derby had drawn an full field of 12 runners for the 1 1/8 miles race. You can get the Past Performances from drf.com.

1. Fierce Wind, 122, Cornelio H. Velasquez
2. Smooth Air, 122, Manoel R. Cruz
3. Da' Tara, 122, Joe Bravo
4. Tomcito, 122, Jorge F. Chavez
5. Cool Gator 122, Eddie Castro
6. Nistle's Crunch, 122, Julien R. Leparoux
7. B B Frank, 122, Javier Castellano
8. Elysium Fields, 122, Eibar Coa
9. Hey Byrn, 122, Jose Lezcano
10. Majestic Warrior, 122, Rene R. Douglas
11. Face the Cat, 122, John R. Velazquez
12. Big Brown, 122, Kent J. Desormeaux

The morning line favorite at 3-1 Big Brown will start at the far outside. Big Brown will probably get bet down by the public at race time base on its 2-2 lifetime record and the average winning margin of 11 length. Big Brown ran a 103 beyer in his last race, one of the highest beyer for this year 3 year old. If he run back to his last race, he will win the derby.

At 12-1 Tomcito is the mystery horse. Tomcito had not race since Nov 17 when it won the Peruvian Derby(G1) at 1 1/2 miles, defeating 3 yrs old while still a 2 year old. Tomcito had won 4 of 5 start in Peru and had been training in Palm Meadows for this race. He fired a bullet in his final work competing 5f in 58 4/5.

Fierce Wind at 6-1 has won 3 in row coming into this race. He defeated Big truck by 1/2 length in the Sam F Davis while racing near the front. Fierce Wind will likely be stalking the pace, the inside will help him to save ground at both turns.

Elysium Fields spot a 1-3-1 record in 5 lifetime starts. He finished 2nd in Fountain of Youth (G2) on Feb 24 , lost to Cool Coal Man by 1/2 length. Elysium Field is very consistant and his trainer Barclay Tagg is one of the best in the business to get his horse ready for the big race.

My main ticket will be an exactor box of Big Brown, Tomcito, Fierce Wind and Elysium Fields. My backup ticket will a trifecta wager with Tomcito to win and Big Brown, Fierce Wind, Elysium Fields, Majectic Warrior and Face the Cat for the other 2 spots.

Dubai World Cup 2008

This Satuarday March 29, 2008, is the 13th running of the world riches horse race - Dubai World cup. Horse of the year Curlin will be the the odd on favorite in a 13 horse field. The 4 year old colt will start in post 12 and he will have to overcome the outside post to win the 2000M race.
Here's a quick look at the pp of each horse and its jockey.

1. Sway Yed, Olivier Peslier
2. Well Armed, Aaron Gryder
3. Happy Boy, Kerrin McEvoy
4. Kocab, Stephane Pasquier
5. Great Hunter, Garrett Gomez
6. Premium Tap, Sebastian Madrid
7. Vermilion, Yutaka Take
8. Jalil, Lanfranco Dettori
9. Asiatic Boy, John Murtagh
10. Lucky Find, Kevin Shea
11. Gloria De Campeao, Christophe Lemaire
12. Curlin, Robby Albarado
13. A. P. Arrow, Ramon Dominguez

Steve Asmussen brought Curlin to Dubai 6 weeks ago to fully acclimate to the weather and the Nad Al Sheba racetrack. Curlin easily won the Feb. 28 Jaguar Cup in his final prep race while coming from behind and racing wide in the strech. There will be no value in picking the winner of this race as I believe Curlin will win it easily.

One of the horse that will be getting alot of public interest is Jalil, Godolphin's main hope with regular jockey Lanfranco Dettori to ride. Jalil is a improving 4 year old and won the round one of the Al Maktoum Challenge earlier this month. The $9.7 million Storm Cat colt is 3 for 3 this winter at Dubai and he is peaking at the right time. If anyone can upset Curln, it will be Jalil.

Vermilion ran 4th in last year edition of the World cup and is coming into this racing in top form. The 6 year old horse won the February Stakes(G1) at Tokyo Racecourse on Feb 24 for his fourth consective win. I was very impress with Vermilion victory in the Japan Dirt cup(G1) last November, his strong closing kick should prvoide an exciting finish.

Asiatic Boy is the wild card of this race. It became the first horse to win the UAE Triple Crown last year when it destroyed the UAE Derby field by 9 1/2 lenght over runner-up Jack Junior. Asiatic Boy won a sprint race in January but only finish 3rd in the Burj Nahaar(G3) on March 6 as his final prep race. Mike de Kock, Asiatic Boy's trainer was aslo suprised by the horse's poor performance but reported the horse is in good heath. If Asiatic Boy can run back to his last year's form, he will be very dangerous.

Last year's runner-up Premium Tap will return for another crack of the top prize. I love Premium Tap in the 2006 Breeder Cup Classic, which he ran 3rd as the 27-1 long shot behind Invasor and Bernardini. Premium Tap will be the forgotten horse in this year's race. He failed to impress and finished forth in his last race, the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup, a race that he won in 2007. The six year old Pleasant Tap horse is more suited to the 10 furlong than the 12 furlong the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup. I will absolutly use him at the bottom of the trifecta.

Another American horse Well Armed, is ready for a strong showing base on his recent form and training. The 5 year old Tiznow horse finished second in the 1 1/16-mile San Pasqual Handicap (G2) and then won the San Antonio Handicap (G2) on Feb 9 at Santa Antia. Well Armed is expected to go to the lead when the gate open and will try to steal the race by slowing down the pace. I don't expect Well Armed to hold off Curlin in the strech but he may last for a minor award.

Good luck everyone and I am looking forward to cash my winning tickets.