Queen's Plate Update

Harlem Rocker beat the highly regarded J Be K in the Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct on Saturday to remain undefeated in 3 starts. Harlem Rocker was settling in the 3rd place in the early going while J Be K set the pace. J Be K had a 2 length advantage while turning for home and Harlem Rocker was closing 4-wide under Eibar Coa. Harlem Rocker zoom pass the leader at the mid-stretch and easily won by 2 1/2 length. Harlem Rocker will probably have one more prep before Queen's Plate and could be the favorite at race time.

There are other Queen's plate contenders raced over the weekend.

Giquere and Deputiformer completed in the Wando Stakes at Woodbine on Friday. Both Michael Depaulo trains colts were no matched to the Kentucky bred Bonanze and finished 2nd and 5th respectively. Deputiformer performance was rather disappointing consider he finished 3rd to Big Brown in his last race. Their next race are likely the Marine Stakes on May 17 or the Plate Trail on June 1st.

Shilla and Gloriosuly both top Woodbine Oaks contenders face off against each on Sunday in the Fury Stakes at Woodbine. Shilla caught Gloriosuly at the wire to win by a nose, both fillies remain on target for the Oaks. There is always a chance one of them to show up in the Queen's Plate but I don't think either one of them can get the 1 1/4 miles.

Tomcito update

Tomcito, the mystery horse from Peru has drawn a lot of public interest after his 3rd finish in the Florida Derby. Tomcito finsihed 6th in the Lexington in his last race and is unlikely to draw into the Derby field. He currently ranks 25th in the graded stakes earning list and will need a lot of defections. Tomcito's connection is still prepping for the Derby and he galloped 1 3/4 miles at Churchill Downs this morning. Dante Zanelli, Tomcito's trainer, indicated if Tomcito missed the Derby he will wait for the Belmont and may use the Peter Pan as a prep race.

A P Indy Factor

When it comes to the Kentucky Derby every racing fan have its own theory of tossing horse out of the large Derby field and I am no exception. I came up with this theory a few years ago and I call it the A P Indy factor.

A P Indy factor basically described any A P Indy colts will get over bet at the Derby and the horse becomes an automatic toss out from any Win bets.

It is actually very easy to understand the reasons behind the A P Indy factor.

1. A P Indy offspring usually command high $$ at auction and most public think expensive yearling = good horse.

2. A P Indy is 2 times leading sire of the year and sired more than 110 stakes winner. A P Indy offspring = good horses.

3. A P Indy won the Belmont Stakes and his offspring excel at longer distance. But his offspring are often late maturing.

Let take a closer at how some of the A P Indy colts had fared in the Derby over the last 10 years.

Old Trieste (1998) - won an 1 mile allowance race as the final prep of the Derby and finished 10th of 15th.

Stephen Got Even (1999) - won the Galleryfurniture.com Stakes (Lane's End Stakes) and finished 14th of 19th in the Derby. Stephen Got Even entered the Derby with 1 stakes win but was bet down to single digital odds.

Aptitude (2000) - 3rd in the Wood Memorial and finished 2nd in the Derby. The best finish by any A P Indy offspring.

A.P. Valentine (2001) - 5th in the Blue Glass Stakes and finished 7th of 17th in the Derby. He did come back to finished 2nd in both Preakness and Belmont to Point Given

Atswhatimtalknbout ( 2003) - 900K yearling and finished 4th in the Santa Anita Derby. Atswhatimtalknbout also got bet down to single digital odds and finished 4th of 16th.

Friends Lake (2004) - won the Florida Derby in his final prep before the Derby and finished 15th of 18th.

A P Warrior (2006) - 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby and finished 18th of 20th.

For this year's Derby, there is one horse by A P Indy is pointing toward the derby and that is Adriano. Adriano won the Lane's End in his last start and should be at least 15-1 long shot in the Derby field. I got the the feeling his odds will likely drop down to single digital when the gate open. There is a lot of interest in this hourse after his last workout at Churchill Downs. I will be tossing out Adriano if he gets over bet.

Let see if the A P Indy factor hold true this year.

Kentucky Derby Workouts

We are less than 2 weeks aways from this years Kentucky Derby and a lot of the contenders are tuning up for the big race.
Here's a quick look at the some of the horses that worked last few days.

Court Vision - worked 4f in 46 1/5 secs at Churchill Downs Thursday morning and the move was fastest of 25 at the distance. Court Vision normally is not a good work horse in the morning and this work had caught a lot of people attention and shown he loves Churchill Downs. Bill Mott, Court Vision's trainer, added blinkers on him for this work and that would explain the fast work time. Court Vision is one of my Top 5 derby horse and it would be interesting to see how he fairs in his next work. If he can be closer to the pace, he will be flying at the stretch.

Smooth Air - worked 7f in 1:25:80 at Calder on Saturday morning. Bennie Stutts Jr, Smooth Air trainer, is putting many 1 mile work into Smooth Air and is building up his stamina. Stutts had done a great job prepping him for the the Florida Derby which he finished 2nd and he could surprise again in the Derby with long odds.

Colonel John - one of my top pick for the Derby worked 59.40 secs for 5f at Santa Anita on Sunday morning. Colonel John completed his final quarter in 23.20 secs. I am looking forward to his next and final workout before the Derby which will be at Churchill Downs, it will give us a good indication of how he handle the dirt track.

Adriano - worked in company for 5f in 1:01 4/5 secs at Churchill Downs Sunday morning. Adriano started 3 lengths behind his workmate but pasted him at the stretch and finish 3 lengths in front. Edger Prado was aboard for the work and both Prado and Graham Motion, Adraino's trainer, were very pleased with the work. Adriano is a flashy looking son of A P Indy and I will explain the A P Indy factor in the Derby tomorrow.

Denis of Cork - worked 5f in 1:00 at Churchill Downs Monday with Calvin Borel aboard. Denis of Cork seem to like the Churchill Downs surface as his work was the fastest of 18 at the same distance. After a dull effort in Illinois Derby which he finished 5th, it will take a monster effort for him to be a factor at the Derby.

Pyro - worked 6f in the fog on Monday morning at Keenland and no time was given by the clockers. A lot of people had already jumped off Pyro bandwagon and I am not convinced he can bounce back from a 10th place effort in the Blue Glass Stakes to be competitive.

Coolmore Lexington Stakes

This Saturday's Coolmore Lexington Stakes represents the last chance for any 3 years old trying to stamp its ticket to this year Kentucky Derby. Seven of the last nine winners of the Lexington Stakes have wheeled back in 2 weeks later for the Run for the Roses and there is a good chance this year's winner and runner-up will run back in the Derby.

Here's a quick look at the field.

PP, Horse, Weight, Jockey
1. Atoned, 117, Edgar Prado
2. Salute the Sarge, 117, Michael Baze
3. Samba Rooster, 117, Garrett Gomez
4. St. Joe, 117, Miguel Mena
5. Racecar Rhapsody, 117, Robby Albarado
6. Felon, 117, Julien Leparoux
7. Behindatthebar, David Romero Flores
8. Tomcito, 123, Jorge F. Chavez
9. Big Glen, 119, Rene Douglas
10. Riley Tucker, 117, John Velazquez
11. Red Sandy, 117, Jamie Theriot

This is a very difficult race to handicap because of my bias toward Tomcito. Tomcito has become the wise guys' horse after his 3rd place finish in the Florida Derby behind Big Brown and Smooth Air. I picked Tomcito when he was 12-1 in Florida Derby and he will get bet down to 5-1 on Saturday. Tomcito worked a bullet in his final workout, clocked a 4f in 46 3/5 secs. The 1 1/6 miles is not his ideal distance but this could set him up nicely for the Derby in 2 weeks. As a closer, he will have to be closer to the early pace to win but he will be running at the end and finish in top 3.

Racecar Rhapsody already won at the Keenland polytrack last year. He made his season debut in the Lane's End Stakes and finished 4th beaten by 4 lengths. Racecar Rhapsody should improve off his last effort and his connection is hoping a win on Saturday will take him to the Derby. Racecar Rhapsody should also benefit from a hot early pace.

St. Joe could surprise with good odds on Saturday. St. Joe is expected to set a honest pace with Samba Rooster for the early part of the race. St. Joe has 2 career wins and both were at Keenland, it shows he would do well on the polytrack. His last race was a very fast 7f allowance that he won going wire to wire. If St. Joe can layoff Samba Rooster at the early going, he will be tough to beat when turning for home.

On paper Riley Tucker looks over match but I got to look for value in an even match race. Riley Tucker finished 2nd in his last race, Transylvania Stakes, which was run at the same distance as the Lexington. Riley Tucker has only 1 career win but is very consistent with a 1-3-1 record in 6 lifetime starts. Post 10 is not ideal but if he can get into a good position going into first turn, he can post a mild upset.

Go Gayego Go

Gayego won the Arkansas Derby impressivly on Saturaday and completed the 1 1/8 miles race in a solid 1.49.63 seconds. Before the race, I questioned if Gayego can handle the distance.

By Gilded Time and out of a Lost Code mare, Gayego is breded to be a miler. In the Arkansas Derby, Gayego stalked the front runner(Tres Borrachos) with very fast fractions -- :22.71, :46.61, and 1:11.09. Gayego took the lead while turning for home and the second place finisher Z Fortune almost pull even at the final furlong. Gayego was able to find more in the tank while under left handed urging from Mike Smith to win by 3/4 lenght.

By winning the race, Gayego also showed he can handle dirt surface after running only on California's synthetic tracks. Gayego early speed could be vital in a large field like the Kentucky Derby, it will keep him out of trouble in the early going.

After Saturaday's performance, Gayego and Colonel John are my top 2 choices going into the Kentucky Derby.

Arkansas Derby

14 horses are entered for this Saturday $1 million Arkansas Derby. Since there is no obvious stand out in the race, I will be looking for value in my selections.
Here's a quick look at the field and you can the Past Performances from DRF.com


PP, Horse, Weight, Jockey

1. Victory Pete, 118, Clinton Potts
2. Tres Borrachos, 118, Tyler Baze
3. Shekinah, 118, Christopher Emigh (f)
4. King's Silver Son, 118, Luis Quinonez
5. Gayego, 122, Mike Smith
6. Isabull, 118, Timothy Doocy
7. My Pal Charlie, 118, Julien Leparoux
8. Blackberry Road, 118, Calvin Borel
9. Liberty Bull, 122, Eusebio Razo, Jr.
10. Golden Yank, 122, Larry Sterling, Jr.
11. Ablaze With Spirit, 122, M. Clifton Berry (f)
12. Z Fortune, 122, Robby Albarado
13. Indian Sun, 118, Richard Migliore
14. Jazz in the Park, 118, Miguel Mena (f)

(f) mutuel field

Liberty Bull won its last race, the Win Star Derby at the same distance and spot a 3-2-1 record in 6 lifetime starts. Liberty Bull will be stalking the early hot pace and should be right there when the field turning for home. I think he can pull off a mild upset.

The Steve Asmussen train King's Silver Son finished 2nd in the Rebel Stakes at old 17-1. King's Silver Son was flying at the stretch in his last race but couldn't catch the winner. The added distance and honest pace would help his chance.

Blackberry Road was one of the top 2 year old when he finished 2nd in the Kentucky Jockey Club. After finished off the board in its last 2 starts, he should provide good odds for this race. Blackberry Road is a closer and only have 1 career win. He will need the race to fall apart to win but he should benefit from an expected hot pace early.

Isabull is the other son of Holly Bull in the field. Isabull finished 3rd in the Rebel, 2 3/4 lengths behind King's Silver Son. Isabull will need another ground saving trip to hit the board and could surprise with long odds.

I will box all 4 horses for my exactor wagers. As for my trifecta tickets, I will use Liberty Bull and King's Silver Son to win, Blackberry Road, Isabull, Gayego and the mutuel field to fill out the bottom of the tickets. Gayego is expected to be on the early lead, just in case it lasted for a show spot. You get 3 horses for betting the mutuel field, it is a must use in the trifecta.

2008 Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge

Woodbine's Thoroughbred racing season started last Saturday and the Queen's Plate will be run on June 22nd, 2008. Queen's plate is the Canadian equivalent of the Kentucky Derby and you can find out more about this year's event here.

Woodbine is also bringing back the Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge for the 9th year. The Challenge is free to enter and limited one entry per person. This year top prize is $5000 better voucher and top 13 finishers all get a prize.

Here're my selections of my stable.

Horse
Cool Gator
Handsome Blue
Harlem Rocker
Giquere
Deputiformer (Stable Star)
Stuck in Traffic
Not Bourbon
Palmers
Gloriously
Knotty Knotty

Jockey (Group 1)
Jono Jones
Jockey (Group 2)
Richard dos Ramos
Jockey (Group 3)
Slade Callaghan

Trainer (Group 1)
Michael DePaulo
Trainer (Group 2)
Roger Attfield
Trainer (Group 3)
Mike Keogh

Please let War Pass win the Wood Memorial

Last year's 2 year old champion War Pass will face 9 other 3 year olds in the 1 1/8 miles Wood Memorial on Saturday. War Pass reminded me a lot of 1997 Horse of the Year Favorite Trick.

Both War Pass and Favorite Trick sires are sprinters and they like to race in the front. Both horses are undefeated as a 2 year old and won the Breeder's cup Juvenile by large margin. Both horse failed to win their distance test as a 3 year old. War Pass finished last in the 1 1/16 miles Tampa Bay Derby and Favorite Trick finished a close 3rd in the Arkansas Derby. Amazingly Favorite Trick was the 2nd betting choice in the 1998 Derby despite his obvious distance limitation.

If somehow War Pass manage to win the Wood Memorial this Saturday, he will be one of the top 3 choices comes the Derby time. War Pass is an automatic toss out for me if he makes it to the Derby, just liked I didn't bet a penny on Favorite Trick in his Derby while hitting the trifecta.

Big Brown will not win the Derby

You heard it right, I will be betting against Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby. The unbeaten Big Brown is the 3-1 morning line favorite for the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool and he will get plenty of support base on his smashing performance in the Florida Derby.

Big Brown won the $1-million Florida Derby with only 2 lifetime starts and just missed the track record for the 1 1/8 miles by 2/5 of a second. There is no doubt the horse has accomplished a lot in his short career but so did last year Horse of the Year Curlin. Curlin won the Arkansas Derby by a record 10½ lengths also in his 3rd career start and was the 5-1 second choice in the 2007 Derby. Curlin only managed to finish 3rd in the Derby behind Street Sense while running into traffic problem in the 20 horses field.

There are more than just his inexperience working against Big Brown in the Derby, his pedigree and heath issues are also causes for concern.

Big Brown is by Boundary and his dam sire is Nureyev, both are know to produce miler and sprinter. Although many miler has sired Derby winners (Smarty Jones, War Emblem and Funny Cide) in recent years, it does take a special horse and a perfect setup for a horse to outrun its pedigree to win at 1 1/4 miles.

Big Brown has been dealing with quarter crack issues all his career. He won his 2nd career race with only 3 morning works following a quarter crack and has only 5 published works before the Florida Derby.

Although I don't like Big Brown chance of winning of the Derby, I will use him in the bottom of the my exacta and trifecta wagers. This horse may just be as good as Curlin.

Notes : I love the race by Tomcito. Althought he was beaten over 12 length by Big Brown, he did finish 3rd while closing from last. The horse has not run since Nov 2007 and the Florida Derby was his first race in US. Tomcito will probably pass the Derby but he will need one more prep race. He is a must use if he show up in the Peakness or the Belmont Stakes.