This is it, the big one is finally here. A full field of 20 horses will compete in this year's Kentucky Derby on Saturday. Florida Derby winner Big Brown is trying to win the Derby off 3 career starts while starting from the outside post 20. The last horse to win the Derby with 3 careers is Regret in 1915 and no horse has ever win from post 20 since 1929 (Clyde Van Dusen in 1929 won the Derby with a walk-up start). Big Brown is expected to be a short price and I will try beat him with better price horses.
Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John is ready for a top effort judging from his final workout which he breezed a 5f in 57 4/5, fastest of 62 at the same distance. Colonel John is one of the 2 horses that had won two 1 1/8 miles race coming into the Derby and he is bread to run all day. Colonel John will be running on dirt for the first and he must avoid traffic to setup his stretch run. With some racing luck, Colonel John should be flying at the end.
Gayego is another Southern Cal horse that I like and he proved me wrong in the Arkansas Derby. Gayego won the Arkansas Derby while stalking the early leader and held off the fast charging Z Fortune at the wire to win by 3/4 length. Gayego has already outrun his pedigree and his post 19 is not going to help. This horse remind me of Lion Heart who Mike Smith guided to a 2nd place finish in the 2004 Derby. Both colt has very similar front running styles and a lot of tactical speed to avoid traffic in the early part of the race. At 15-1 or higher, I am sticking with Gayego and hoping he can do better than Lion Heart.
Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John is ready for a top effort judging from his final workout which he breezed a 5f in 57 4/5, fastest of 62 at the same distance. Colonel John is one of the 2 horses that had won two 1 1/8 miles race coming into the Derby and he is bread to run all day. Colonel John will be running on dirt for the first and he must avoid traffic to setup his stretch run. With some racing luck, Colonel John should be flying at the end.
Gayego is another Southern Cal horse that I like and he proved me wrong in the Arkansas Derby. Gayego won the Arkansas Derby while stalking the early leader and held off the fast charging Z Fortune at the wire to win by 3/4 length. Gayego has already outrun his pedigree and his post 19 is not going to help. This horse remind me of Lion Heart who Mike Smith guided to a 2nd place finish in the 2004 Derby. Both colt has very similar front running styles and a lot of tactical speed to avoid traffic in the early part of the race. At 15-1 or higher, I am sticking with Gayego and hoping he can do better than Lion Heart. 
Court Vision finished third in the Wood Memorial for his last race but he had dramatically improves since arrived at Churchill Downs. He worked 4f in 46 1/5 on April 17 and then followed that up with another 5f work in 1:00 4/5 on Sunday. We know he like the dirt at Churchill Downs as he won the 1 mile Iroquois last year on the same track. Count Vision is a confirm closer and Mott is adding blinker in the Derby to try to get him closer to pace, he was 18 length behind at the quarter pole in the wood. On paper Court Vision has one of the slowest Beyers Figure (90) in the field, but he should improve with the added distance.Z Fortune ran a hugh race in his last start while finishing 2nd to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby. The Steve Asmusseen trained colt had eared some very strong late pace figures in his career except for the Rebel Stakes which he failed to fire as the odd on favorite. At odds 15-1 or higher, Z Fortune is a must use in my trifecta wagers.
Pyro failed as the odds on favorite in the Blue Glass Stakes but that was run on the polytrack. Pyro has a very explosive turn of foot and his win in Risen Star was one of the best race by a 3 year old this year. Pyro's stamina remained a big question mark as he has never won beyond 1 1/16 mile but he is capable of hitting board with a good stretch run.
Here's how I place my bet. Court Vision, Colonel John and Gayego for the top spot of the trifecta bets, i will add Z Fortune, Pyro and big Brown to round out the bottom 2 spots. Also a 4 horse trifecta box of Big Brown, Z Fortune, Colonel John and Gayego, just in case Big Brown is a freak. A couple of backup exactor tickets, Colonel John and Gayego box with Monba, Denis of Cork, Smooth Air, Tale of Ekati and Adriano.
Good luck and I am looking forward to cash my tickets.
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