You heard it right, I will be betting against Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby. The unbeaten Big Brown is the 3-1 morning line favorite for the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool and he will get plenty of support base on his smashing performance in the Florida Derby.
Big Brown won the $1-million Florida Derby with only 2 lifetime starts and just missed the track record for the 1 1/8 miles by 2/5 of a second. There is no doubt the horse has accomplished a lot in his short career but so did last year Horse of the Year Curlin. Curlin won the Arkansas Derby by a record 10½ lengths also in his 3rd career start and was the 5-1 second choice in the 2007 Derby. Curlin only managed to finish 3rd in the Derby behind Street Sense while running into traffic problem in the 20 horses field.
There are more than just his inexperience working against Big Brown in the Derby, his pedigree and heath issues are also causes for concern.
Big Brown is by Boundary and his dam sire is Nureyev, both are know to produce miler and sprinter. Although many miler has sired Derby winners (Smarty Jones, War Emblem and Funny Cide) in recent years, it does take a special horse and a perfect setup for a horse to outrun its pedigree to win at 1 1/4 miles.
Big Brown has been dealing with quarter crack issues all his career. He won his 2nd career race with only 3 morning works following a quarter crack and has only 5 published works before the Florida Derby.
Although I don't like Big Brown chance of winning of the Derby, I will use him in the bottom of the my exacta and trifecta wagers. This horse may just be as good as Curlin.
Notes : I love the race by Tomcito. Althought he was beaten over 12 length by Big Brown, he did finish 3rd while closing from last. The horse has not run since Nov 2007 and the Florida Derby was his first race in US. Tomcito will probably pass the Derby but he will need one more prep race. He is a must use if he show up in the Peakness or the Belmont Stakes.
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