Coolmore Lexington Stakes

This Saturday's Coolmore Lexington Stakes represents the last chance for any 3 years old trying to stamp its ticket to this year Kentucky Derby. Seven of the last nine winners of the Lexington Stakes have wheeled back in 2 weeks later for the Run for the Roses and there is a good chance this year's winner and runner-up will run back in the Derby.

Here's a quick look at the field.

PP, Horse, Weight, Jockey
1. Atoned, 117, Edgar Prado
2. Salute the Sarge, 117, Michael Baze
3. Samba Rooster, 117, Garrett Gomez
4. St. Joe, 117, Miguel Mena
5. Racecar Rhapsody, 117, Robby Albarado
6. Felon, 117, Julien Leparoux
7. Behindatthebar, David Romero Flores
8. Tomcito, 123, Jorge F. Chavez
9. Big Glen, 119, Rene Douglas
10. Riley Tucker, 117, John Velazquez
11. Red Sandy, 117, Jamie Theriot

This is a very difficult race to handicap because of my bias toward Tomcito. Tomcito has become the wise guys' horse after his 3rd place finish in the Florida Derby behind Big Brown and Smooth Air. I picked Tomcito when he was 12-1 in Florida Derby and he will get bet down to 5-1 on Saturday. Tomcito worked a bullet in his final workout, clocked a 4f in 46 3/5 secs. The 1 1/6 miles is not his ideal distance but this could set him up nicely for the Derby in 2 weeks. As a closer, he will have to be closer to the early pace to win but he will be running at the end and finish in top 3.

Racecar Rhapsody already won at the Keenland polytrack last year. He made his season debut in the Lane's End Stakes and finished 4th beaten by 4 lengths. Racecar Rhapsody should improve off his last effort and his connection is hoping a win on Saturday will take him to the Derby. Racecar Rhapsody should also benefit from a hot early pace.

St. Joe could surprise with good odds on Saturday. St. Joe is expected to set a honest pace with Samba Rooster for the early part of the race. St. Joe has 2 career wins and both were at Keenland, it shows he would do well on the polytrack. His last race was a very fast 7f allowance that he won going wire to wire. If St. Joe can layoff Samba Rooster at the early going, he will be tough to beat when turning for home.

On paper Riley Tucker looks over match but I got to look for value in an even match race. Riley Tucker finished 2nd in his last race, Transylvania Stakes, which was run at the same distance as the Lexington. Riley Tucker has only 1 career win but is very consistent with a 1-3-1 record in 6 lifetime starts. Post 10 is not ideal but if he can get into a good position going into first turn, he can post a mild upset.