2009 Preakness Stakes

I barely recovered from the Derby debacle 2 weeks ago but I am ready to take my chances at tomorrow's Preakness Stakes. Preakness is the 2nd leg of the triple crown and this year renewal is especially interesting since the super filly Rachel Alexandra was supplemented to take on the boys. Here's a quick look at the field.

PP Horse Jockey ML
1 Big Drama Velazquez 10-1
2 Mine That Bird Smith 6-1
3 Musket Man Coa 8-1
4 Luv Gov Theriot 50-1
5 Friesan Fire Saez 6-1
6 Terrain Rose 30-1
7 Papa Clem Bejarano 12-1
8 General Quarters Leparoux 20-1
9 Pioneerof the Nile Gomez 5-1
10 Flying Private Garcia 50-1
11 Take The Points Prado 30-1
12 Tone It Down Desormeaux 50-1
13 Rachel Alexandra Borel 8-5

From the early betting at the close of Friday, Rachel Alexandra is the 3-2 odds on favorite. Followed by Pioneerof the Nile and Mine That Bird, both are at 7-1. Rachel Alexandra is a very good filly but I am not as excited as others about her Kentucky Oaks (G1) victory. She didn't beat much in the Oaks, the 2nd place finisher Stone Legacy failed to hit the board in today's Black Eye Susan Stakes (G2). The 20 1/4 margin was impressive but coming back in 2 weeks against colts for the first time at short odds, I can't bet her with confident. I think the 13 post will be a positive for her and I will use her on my backup tickets.

My top pick of the race is Friesan Fire, a horse that I didn't like in the Derby. Friesan Fire was the Derby favorite and a son by AP Indy, that's 2 strikes against him in the Derby. I wasn't surprised by his 18th finish (beaten 42 1/2 length by Mine that Bird) but I think he will redeem himself tomorrow's. The Preakness will be his 2nd start after a 7 weeks layoff and his May 12 5f work of 58 2/5s shows he is ready for a big effort tomorrow. If the track comes up sloppy as rain is in tomorrow forecast, it will only help his chance.

I have to admit, Mine the Bird would be my 19th pick in the 19 horse Derby field. Its victory got to be one of the biggest upset I had seen in my life... unbelievable. But I won't be surprise if he run well tomorrow. His morning works since the Derby has been very consistent and he getting good at the right time. Just like Friesan Fire, if the track comes up sloppy tomorrow he is a must use on all my tickets. He maybe an off-track specialist based on his Derby performance.

Musket Man ran an amazing race in the Derby, and was beaten by a noise for the runner-up spot. He will make his 6th 3 year old start tomorrow and the 2 weeks quick turn around is a big concern. He draw inside again and that will help him to save ground. Jockey Coa will try to get him to stalk Big Drama and I am interested to see if he has enough to hold of the closers. Musket Man is ultra consistent but never seem to get the respect. He will go off higher than 15-1 at post time and it make him more attractive in the wagering.

Papa Clem was one of my pick for the Derby and he finished a respectable 4th. The shorter distance of the Preakness should suit him better. His 2f blowout this morning was very similar to the one he had just before the Derby. I think a fast track will improve his chance for tomorrow, I will watch the weather and bet accordingly.

My longshot of the race is Terrain. I always like Terrain and bet on him in last year Breeders' Cup Juvenile which he finished 4th at 15-1. Terrain is a stone cold closer and it always makes him close but not winning. His Beyers is lower than most of the contenders in the field but he is prime for a big effort in his 3rd start of the year. At 25-1 or higher, I will use him at the bottom of my exacta and trifacta.

Here's how I will wager tomorrow. For sloppy track condition, Friesan Fire and Mine that Bird at top of my tri and Musket Man, Papa Clem , Terrain and Pioneerof the Nile to fill out the bottom of the tickets. For fast track, I will use Friesan Fire and Papa Clem on top for the tri. For my backup tickets, I will use Rachel Alexandra on top of my tri, with FF, MN, PC, Terrain and PN at the bottom.