2009 Kentucky Derby

It is never easy to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby, as Steve Haskin wrote in his article this week "There are no experts when it comes to the Derby. It humbles even the greatest of analytical minds". I have narrowed my Derby field down to 10 horse after eliminated all the pretenders. I spent last couple of days study each horse and watching replay of each prep races, at the end I came up with a pretty clear picture of what will happen to tomorrow.

My top pick for the Derby is #13 I want Revenge. If you have read my previous post, you know I am not a big fan of it part owner, IEAH. But I had learned my lesson and I will not let that cloud my judgement. I want Revenge is the morning line favorite and I predicted it may get bet down to 2-1. Surprisingly, I want Revenge is 6-1 in the advance on-track wagering . If i can get 5-1 at post time, I will keying him on all my wagers.

I love Dunkirk's post position, the 15th post will allows him to settle down if he breaks slowly tomorrow. His lack of seasoning is well documented, but if Big brown can win the Derby win 3 career start why not him. History is not on his side and he also have to deal with Pletcher's 0-21 streak at the Derby. If I can get 8-1, he is worth taking a shot.

I always like #19 Desert Party. The outside draw is a disadvantage but Big Brown won it with Post 20 last year and Denis of Cork finished 3rd last year from post 16.Desert Party will be overlay at post time with odds close to 20-1 which makes him very attractive for any exotics. If Dominguez can settle him in and not lose too much ground on the first turn, he will be very dangerous. Maybe this will be the year Godolphin win it first Derby

As expected #7 Papa Clem's odds dropping fast after his eye catching 3 furlong blowout of 34s from yesterday. The Arkansas Derby winner had ran 2 good race since moving to dirt track. I am hoping he is not this year's Gayego, which also won the Arkansas Derby last year but only to finish up the track. The inside post will help Papa Clem as he will be close to the pace in the early going, let hope he don't get in a speed dual with Mine that Bird or Join in the Dance.

#6 Friesan Fire is an interesting one. Not only he is currently the favorite at the advance wagering, he is also by A P Indy. That's 2 strikes against him. Friesan Fire ran a big race in the Louisiana Derby and earned a 104 Beyers, which made him a handful of horses that ran a triple digital Beyers. Rain is forecast for tomorrow and Friesan Fire will move way up on an off track.

My longshot special #17 Summer Bird. Just like Dunkirk, Summer Bird only has 3 career starts and made his debug in March this year. I was super impress with his last race and he was gaining on the leading toward the finish line. The 1 1/4M is prefect for him and the outside post will keep him out of trouble in the early going. I don't expect him to win the Derby but I won't surprise is he hit the board at 50-1.

Here's how I am going to bet tomorrow, I will use I want Revenge, Dunkirk and Desert Party on top of my trifacta tickets and add Friesan Fire and Papa Clem and Pioneer of Nile at the bottom of the tickets. I will box PC, Dunkirk, IWR and FF in another tri and exacta ticket. And last, I will put Summer bird at the 3rd spot on my tri tickets with FF, PC, IWR, Dunk DP at the top 2 spot.